The Montreal Canadiens visit the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday, December 28. This marks the second meeting of the season between these two Atlantic Division heavyweights, as Tampa won a 6-1 rout just a few weeks ago.
My Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks suggest a better offensive result for the Habs this time around.
Canadiens vs Lightning prediction
Canadiens vs Lightning best bet: Canadiens team total Over 2.5 (-145)
Before their loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on December 9, the Montreal Canadiens had scored at least three goals in nine consecutive games against this opponent.
Furthermore, they've hit the team total Over in eight of their last 10 and are fresh off a six-goal beating of the Boston Bruins on December 23.
Tampa is rolling with Jonas Johansson in goal, and his .897 SV% leaves much to be desired.
The Habs rank seventh in the NHL in goals, and despite Tampa's strong defensive reputation, I expect Montreal to continue rolling in the Sunshine State tonight.
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Canadiens vs Lightning same-game parlay
Rookie Oliver Kapanen has found some impressive chemistry alongside Ivan Demidov and Juraj Slafkovsky, and the young trio of Europeans has been scorching hot as of late.
Although Kapanen surely has the least name recognition on the Habs' second line, he's fifth on the team with 64 shots on goal. He fired seven shots on target against the Pittsburgh Penguins on December 21, and hit the Over in the last game against the Bruins. He's hit the Over in three of the last four.
Jacob Fowler has recorded two consecutive wins, hitting the Over for saves in both and collecting his first career shutout against the Penguins. He's looked very much like a goaltender who wants to be the team's No. 1 from now on.
He's hit the Over in three of five career games thus far, and is improving with each passing game.
Canadiens vs Lightning SGP
- Canadiens team total Over 2.5
- Oliver Kapanen Over 1.5 shots on goal
- Jacob Fowler Over 24.5 saves
Canadiens vs Lightning odds
- keMoneyline: Canadiens +130 | Lightning -150
- Puck Line: Canadiens +1.5 (-180) | Lightning -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-120)
Canadiens vs Lightning trend
Montreal has scored at least three goals in nine of the last 10 games versus Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Lightning.
How to watch Canadiens vs Lightning
| Location | Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Sunday, December 28, 2025 |
| Puck drop | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN2 |
Canadiens vs Lightning latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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