Canada vs USA WJC Semifinal Picks and Predictions: Rink Conditions Weigh Into Rivalry Clash

INTRO

Canada vs Czechia odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of January 5, 2023.

Canada vs USA picks and predictions

A quarterfinal game between two teams that hate each other and on an ice surface that will be playing its third game of the day? I’m willing to drink the juice on an Under 7 at -140.

The talk of the tournament is obviously Connor Bedard but with the Americans having the last change as the higher-seeded team, they will have a slight advantage when it comes to the matchups they want.

This will also be easily the most difficult matchup for both teams. Neither side has shown great secondary scoring and the Canadians have relied too heavily on Bedard (in on 63% of the team’s goals) and the power play (13 power-play goals through five games)

The Americans will be putting more attention to both of these factors and if the USA can make Canada's top line have to play defense, something it hasn’t had to do this tournament, this could turn into a low-scoring affair. Add in the possibility of the referees opening the game up, and the Canadians’ strengths could diminish.

Additionally, and likely not priced in, will be the ice conditions. Scotiabank Center will be holding its third straight game of the day and the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League venue should be playing slow — especially later in the periods. Even Canadian forward Shane Wright mentioned the slow ice conditions after the team’s overtime win two days ago.

???????? @HockeyCanada captain Shane Wright was in awe of teammate Connor Bedard's performance in the quarter-finals. #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/XhNF9NxE1N

— IIHF (@IIHFHockey) January 3, 2023

There won’t be much time between the 2:30 game and the USA vs. Canada game that starts at 6:30 either, making things even more difficult for the ice crew. 

Both teams have received solid goaltending as well, with Canadian Thomas Milic and American Trey Augustine posting save percentage north of .920.

My best bet: Under 7 (-140 at FanDuel)

Canada vs USA moneyline analysis

The USA come into the quarterfinals as the home team and gets the important last change after finishing in the top spot in the group stage. They stumbled once vs. Slovakia, but have won convincingly in their four other games, including beating one of the best teams in the tournament in Finland by a final of 6-2. 

Although the Americans don’t have a Connor Bedard, they are loaded with high-end talent and have shown a little more secondary scoring than their opponents, which could be the deciding factor tonight as well. 

Bedard has eight goals and 13 assists so far in the tournament but has also been involved in 64% of the Canadian goals with plenty of those points coming with the man advantage. If the USA can use elite defenseman Luke Hughes to minimize Bedard on an ice surface that will be hosting its third game of the day, the USA are live dogs.

Another advantage the U.S. have is with their smaller but more offensive blue line. The Americans have just one defender who is 6-foot-2 or taller, as opposed to the Canucks, who have just one D-man shorter than 6-foot-2. This is a puck-moving American blue line that can set up the play and exit the defensive zone better than what we've seen from the Canadians, which might be the favorite's biggest weakness in their lineup.

Both goaltenders have come along similar paths, as Canadian Thomas Milic wasn’t the No.1 coming in but has taken over the role with a .921 save percentage and stopping 70 of the 76 shots he’s faced. The Americans are also in great hands between the pipes, as Trey Augustine has also wrestled the No.1 job and is 4-0 SU with a .938 save percentage, stopping 76 of 81 shots. 

On paper, the home side is the better team but I don’t think the Canadians are a near-70% probable favorite which the odds are indicating. The Americans will be able to match up vs. Bedard with the last change and home ice doesn’t always mean a huge advantage for younger athletes in a game where the majority of the pressure is on the host team.

It’s more of a lean, but the value is certainly with the Americans at +172.

Canada vs USA Over/Under analysis

Bettors who are just looking at the box scores might be quick to hit this Over, as all 10 of the combined games the USA and Canada have played in the tournament have all seen at least six goals. However, this matchup is very different, as these were the two betting favorites to win gold heading into the competition and there's a huge talent gap between the top teams and the rest of the nations.

Some books offer a total that only counts regulation, but with FanDuel offering a full-game total that includes overtime, even a potential 3-3 game is a push for bettors.

I would play this Under to +110 at Under 6.5, but the difference in getting the 7 or 6.5 is certainly worth the -140 price, in my opinion.

This will be a tight game played on slow ice. Both goalies come in hot and with the last change, the Americans can match up well vs. the Canadians' top line. Neither team has impressed with its secondary scoring despite some top-end talent while the home side has some immense pressure playing in front of the packed home crowd.

There will be games at Scotiabank Center at 10, 2:30, and 6:30 which is a packed schedule that will certainly affect the ice conditions for this third game of the day.

Canada vs USA betting trend to know

The USA is 6-4 SU in the last 10 meetings dating back to 2012. Find more World Juniors betting trends for Canada vs. USA.

Canada vs USA game info

Pages related to this topic