Bruins vs Lightning Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Zacha Steps Up in Big Game

The Boston Bruins take their league-best record (38-5-4) to Florida and take on the Tampa Bay Lightning who currently have the fifth-best point percentage in hockey.

The Bolts opened as slight favorites but it’s the visitors that have moved to -115 as of this morning, which likely has a lot to do with the B's’ six-game win streak and 2-0 record vs. Tampa this season.

With so much talent up front which is heavily taxed in the prop market, should bettors be looking at some secondary players for the best value tonight?

Find out my best bet for the Bruins vs. Lightning in my NHL betting picks and predictions.

Bruins vs Lightning best odds

Bruins vs Lightning picks and predictions

The Lightning stacked their top line last game vs. the Wild in a 4-2 win on Tuesday with Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov all playing on the first line.

This is an approach that Jon Cooper uses at home that allows him to get advantageous matchups with the last change. Unfortunately, it looks like the books have priced this in as the three are hard to consider for a straight-up bet in their shots and points markets. 

However, the Bruins have a more balanced approach in their top six, and the second line with Pavel Zacha, David Krejci, and David Pastrnak could see decent matchups with Cooper keying on the Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand line.  

Zacha has enjoyed his time playing with Krejci and Pastrnak and has 12 points in his last 15 games with at least a point in nine of them. He is close to a coinflip these days to find the scoresheet but is being priced at +125 for a point which implies roughly 0.32 points scored where I have it closer to 0.45. Playing with Pastrnak is paying off for Pavel.

Bettors aren’t going to find much value in both teams’ top skaters but some secondary players (Zacha, Krejci, Taylor Hall, and Brandon Hagel) could bring the best returns. If you’re into player prop Unders, this could be a good game to fade the big boys. 

My best bet: Pavel Zacha Over 0.5 points (+125)

Bruins vs Lightning moneyline analysis

Two of the best in the East will meet tonight and bettors and books aren’t on the same page as to who should be the favorite.

Tampa opened at -115 but became the underdogs by 2 a.m. this morning. These two teams have met twice already this season with both meetings coming in November. Boston took each game by a combined score of eight to four. The 5-3 Bruins win in Tampa closed at -110 aside with a pair of healthy rosters and Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Linus Ullmark.

The Bolts will likely see Ullmark (the Vezina betting favorite) tonight after Jeremy Swayman got the 4-2 win in Montreal on Tuesday. They’ll also face a Boston team on the second game of a five-game road trip that has Florida, Carolina, and Toronto on deck after tonight. It’s the toughest stretch for the Bruins this season and they were lucky to get two points vs. Montreal on Tuesday as a season-short -425 road favorite. 

The Bruins have won 10 of their last 11 — including just one game as even-money odds or longer — but the Lightning have been one of the best home teams in all of hockey with an 18-4-1 record on home ice. That also includes the highest-scoring offense at 4.09 goals per game and a goalie in Vasilevskiy who owns a 2.16 GAA and a .925 SV% at home over the last three seasons with a 51-14-5 record. 

This is a true coin-flip game and the only edge I see on the Lightning is the scheduled spot for the Bruins and the books opening Tampa at -115. 

Bruins vs Lightning Over/Under analysis

These two clubs have split the first two meetings with one Under in a 3-1 Boston win at TD Garden and a 5-3 final in Tampa. Combined, the Bruins and Lightning are a combined 41-40-13 O/U on the season. The 13 pushes are a good indicator that these two teams see a lot of 6-goal totals and that’s what bettors are looking at tonight.

The last meeting, a 3-1 Boston win at home, closed with a total of 6.5 after opening at 6 and reaching 6.5 one hour before puck drop. Tonight’s total is trending to the Under, however, some books have moved from Over 6 -120 to -110.

It’s tough to predict a high-scoring game here with Ullmark and Vasilevskiy likely getting the nod. The Tampa goalie had a rough go in his last home meeting vs. the Bruins, stopping 23 of 28 shots and allowing a pair of power-play goals. In total, there were three PP goals scored with just seven minor penalties called. If Vasilevskiy plays to his home splits tonight, this game has 2-2 written all over it. 

The Bruins also have the best penalty kill in hockey which should help keep scoring down and limit a strength of the home team.

With a total of 6, looking at empty-net production is always worth it. Both teams have netted 11 empty-net goals on the season, and when we compare that to their individual regulation win records, we see Boston scoring 0.33 ENGs per regulation win and Tampa with 0.46 ENGs per regulation win.

The Bruins aren't as empty-net happy as other teams, and with both sides as experienced as it comes, getting the extra attacker on the ice for long lengths of time isn’t a given tonight.

I’m off this total but think the Over 6 will need an empty netter to cash.

Bruins vs Lightning betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the Bruins’ last seven Thursday games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs Lightning.

Bruins vs Lightning game info

Bruins vs Lightning key injuries

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