Sloppy hockey opened the NHL season yesterday, but it was a profitable day with the picks. It's a three-game slate to look over today, with great outlying prices on some roles that aren't correctly priced and some offenses that might not have a chance.
This will be the last day we get plus money on Kirill Marchenko's shooting prop, and a new face in Colorado could contribute at a big price.
These are my favorite NHL predictions for Wednesday, Sept. 30.
- UPDATE: Added Kings team total Under.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kirill Marchenko 3+ SOG |
48% |
 TJ Hughes anytime goal |
16% |
 Kings team total Under 2.5 |
52% |
Pick #1: Kirill Marchenko 3+ SOG
This will be the last game we see Kirill Marchenko's 3+ SOG market at better than even money. He had nine shot attempts last night and got four on net in over 20 minutes of action. He's fast, he's a shoot-first player who already has his legs under him, and he's facing a New York Islanders team that will likely be a turnover machine.
Only two other Toronto Maple Leafs had more time on ice than Marchenko, who had just arrived that day but was playing elite minutes and on PP1. His 23.84 shot attempts/60 last night would have ranked second in hockey last year. Marchenko ranked 33rd last year in SAT/60, right next to Macklin Celebrini. His increase in ice time is not being priced in today.
For more, Dustin Saracini has you covered with his Islanders vs. Maple Leafs predictions.
- Matchup: Islanders vs. Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
- TV: Prime
Pick #2: TJ Hughes anytime goal
Not many know who TJ Hughes is, but if my sister was on the Colorado Avalanche's PP1, I would bet her at this price. The rookie is getting a shot with the big boys out of the gate and playing on a decent third line that might get more minutes than usual after the preseason didn't give skaters much time to get their legs under them.
Hughes had a big playoff run for the AHL's Colorado Eagles last year, with 14 points in 17 games. He was also a Hobey Baker finalist and plays with a chip on his shoulder after going undrafted. Everything you read about him talks about his insane hockey IQ, and it must be showing in one of the smartest hockey locker rooms in the league.
The Avs have beaten the Los Angeles Kings in seven straight games and own them. The defense is missing a key member in Joel Edmundson, and Cody Ceci still eats some minutes there. Even if Hughes plays one shift on the power play, I'd buy this at 5x and not the 6.5x price I got it for.
For more, Neil Parker has a full slate of Kings vs. Avalanche predictions at the ready.
- Matchup: Kings vs. Avalanche
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
- TV: TNT
Pick #3: Kings team total Under 2.5
Last season, these teams met seven times, and Colorado won every game. That includes a four-game playoff sweep where the Kings scored just five goals. The last time the Kings scored three or more goals against the Avs was April 12, 2025, and the only time they've accomplished that over the last 10 meetings.
With the sloppy hockey out of the gate on Tuesday, playing at altitude won't help the visitors, and getting this at 52% is a gift, as this should be a 60% prop when factoring in the slow NHL start.
If the Avalanche get the first goal, they know how to shut down the Kings and win by a small margin. It's what good teams do, and Colorado might be the best team in hockey.
- Matchup: Kings vs. Avalanche
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
- TV: TNT
- Top picks: 1-2, +0.35 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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