Another week of the NFL season is upon us and we’ve got some absolute juicy NFL odds this week headlined by the Bengals and Ravens on Thursday night along with the Super Bowl matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs on Monday night.
This week’s trend report features a mixed bag of standard and weirdo trends to consider as part of your handicaps. Of course, I’ve also got a variety of Under NFL betting trends to look at as low scoring continues to dominate the season.
While Overs edged out Unders 8-6 in Week 10, Unders are still hitting at close to 60% and have been wildly profitable in primetime. Night games have gone Under in 25 of 32 games this season with Monday night Unders on an 11-1 tear!
Does this mean your NFL picks should automatically just be primetime Unders going forward? Of course not – each game still needs to be looked at individually… it does help though when the primetime schedule is flooded with the likes of the Jets, Raiders, and Giants.
Perhaps as a result of all the Unders hitting, the highest total this week is only 46.5. It’ll be interesting to see if the pattern continues or if scoring starts to pick up in the second half.
Let’s get into this week’s nuggets!
Best NFL Week 11 betting trends
Bengals vs Ravens
The trend: The Bengals are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog (including playoffs)
It’s fair to say Joe Burrow and the boys get up for big games and play up to the competition. During this stretch, they’re a ridiculous 10-1 ATS in the games where they were an underdog of more than three points, and it just so has it that this game has a 3.5-point spread. A correlating trend has seen the Cincinnati Bengals go 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games.
Cowboys vs Panthers
The trend: The Panthers are 8-1 ATS on the first-quarter spread
I’ll happily point this one out again after cashing in on it in Week 10. Somewhat surprisingly, there’s quite a discrepancy in first-quarter points allowed for these teams based on where they play. At home, the Carolina Panthers rank second in the NFL in first-quarter points allowed at 0.8, while on the road the Dallas Cowboys rank 28th at 6.0. You can plug your nose and bet Carolina on the first-quarter spread at +2.5.
Cardinals vs Texans
The trend: The Cardinals have gone Over their team total in seven of their ten games
This record improves to seven of nine games when you remove the Clayton Tune start in Cleveland. It was only one game, but Kyler Murray looked good in his season debut leading the Arizona Cardinals to 25 points on 5.9 yards per play against the Falcons. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a repeat against a Houston Texans team that’s allowed 64 points in their last two games. Arizona’s team total is 21.5 for this matchup.
Giants vs Commanders
The trend: The Giants have gone Under their team total in eight of 10 games
The New York Giants team total for this game is only 13.5, but that still might be too much. They’re averaging a pathetic 11.8 points per game and have stayed Under this number of 13.5 six times. Yes, they scored 17 points last week, but seven of those points came at the end of garbage time with a Sterling Sheppard TD with six seconds remaining.
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Steelers vs Browns
The trend: The Browns have gone Over their team total in eight of nine games
No one will mistake the Cleveland Browns as an offensive dynamo, but they somehow find themselves at 11th in scoring with 23.8 points per game despite ranking 30th in yards per play. Like this game which has a total of 37.5, their totals are often on the low end as seven of their games have had a total lower than 40, which results in a low team total. Their team total for this game is 20.5, which is a number they’ve topped in six of their nine games.
Bears vs Lions
The trend: The Bears are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 divisional games
We’re in the fourth straight season where the Chicago Bears have been the punching bag of the NFC North. Chicago is just 1-12 ATS within the most recent 13 games in this trend and has failed to cover in three straight vs the Detroit Lions. The 10-point spread might scare some off, but keep in mind Detroit already has three double-digit wins at home this season and they annihilated the Bears by 31 in Week 17 last season.
Chargers vs Packers
The trend: The Chargers have scored first in 14 of their last 19 games
This trend includes scoring first in seven of their nine games this season and matches up with a trend for the Green Bay Packers that’s seen their opponent score first in 10 of their last 16 games. The Los Angeles Chargers are getting off to great starts this season, averaging 7.2 1st quarter points, while the Packers average just 2.2. Chargers to score first can be had at -128.
Raiders vs Dolphins
The trend: Miami has won all four of its home games by at least 14 points this season
This seems especially relevant with the Miami Dolphins being a 12-point favorite in this matchup. The Dolphins are also 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Mike McDaniel. One of those games came last season vs the Texans after their bye, which is the situation they’re in for this game. It should also be noted that the Dolphins are 18-5-2 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite.
Titans vs Jaguars
The trend: The Titans have gone Under in all five of their road games
The Tennessee Titans havn’t scored more than 16 points in a road game this season which has also led to them going Under their team total in all five of their road games. The total for this matchup is on the low end at 39.5, but six of the Titans' nine games have stayed Under this mark and their road games have an average combined score of just 32.4.
Buccaneers vs 49ers
The trend: The 49ers are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 home games (playoffs included)
The San Francisco 49ers lay the smackdown at home as 12 of these games saw them win by 14 or more points. That’s a very important factor with this game having an 11.5-point spread. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had it pretty easy this season, but in two games vs top-tier teams in the Eagles and Lions, they lost each game by 14 points.
Jets vs Bills
The trend: 12 of the Jets’ last 14 games have failed to cross 40 points
This seems notable with this game having a total of 40. Conveniently enough, seven of the last nine games between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills also haven’t crossed 40 points including the Week 1 matchup between the teams which saw the offenses combine to score just two touchdowns. New York’s offense is dead-last in the NFL with an average of 0.9 offensive touchdowns per game, so they’ll be hoping Josh Allen will toss them a pick-six or two.
Seahawks vs Rams
The trend: The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs the Seahawks
It’s been an up-and-down couple of seasons for the Los Angeles Rams, but one constant has been covering vs. the Seattle Seahawks. These teams met in Week 1 where the Rams destroyed the Seahawks, raking up 246 more yards on the way to a 30-13 victory. Los Angeles is a one-point underdog for this matchup on Sunday.
Vikings vs Broncos
The trend: The Vikings have an 0-9-1 First Quarter Over/Under record
This is a weird trend, but a good trend, and the stats align for this matchup, with each team allowing an average of fewer than four points in the opening quarter and the Minnesota Vikings averaging just 2.6 first-quarter points. The first-quarter total for the game is at 7.5, which indicates oddsmakers might be catching on.
Eagles vs Chiefs
The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in all nine of their games this season
Shockingly, the Kansas City Chiefs rank dead-last in the NFL with an average of just 5.9 second-half points. They’ve been shut out in the second half in back-to-back games vs the Dolphins and Broncos and have scored double-digit points in the second half just twice all season! As a result, their second halves this season are averaging just 14.1 combined points. The second-half total for this game is at 22.5.
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