Week 10 NFL Teaser: Bills to Bounce Back

Ladies and Gentlemen, it’s teaser time!

I’m licking my wounds this week after a second straight teaser loss that brought my record to 4-5 on the season. There were no bad beats to blame this time around after the Seahawks no-showed in Baltimore and got smacked by 34 points. 

Thankfully, I was in Philadelphia for Cowboys vs. Eagles, so I wasn’t able to watch the Seahawks game live. It got so bad that I just turned the alerts off on my phone – that’s when you know how wrong you were about an NFL odds bet.

Ok, so we’re under .500 at the halfway mark and we’ve got some ground to make up in our NFL Week 10 predictions. This isn’t that big of a hole, so let’s right this free NFL picks ship starting here in Week 10, where we have some great options to help us pick up a W.

Let’s go!

Week 10 NFL teaser picks

6-point teaser

• Bills (-1)
• Packers (+9)

Picks made on November 10 at 1:25 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Week 10 Teaser

Bills (-7 to -1) vs. Broncos

Nothing cures a lousy performance like a trip back home for the Bills, where they remain undefeated on the season. Buffalo has been a week-to-week, all-or-nothing team in 2023, and I fully expect the “all” version against the Broncos on Monday night.

The Bills have been much better on their home field, where they’re averaging 31 points per game and rank fourth in yards per play. Denver, meanwhile, ranks dead-last in yards per play allowed both overall and on the road, and while they’ve shown improvements in recent weeks, they’re running into a hungry Bills team at the wrong time.  

Consecutive losses are rare for Buffalo, as they’ve gone 12-3 SU after a loss since the start of the 2020 season. They’re also 25-5 SU as a home favorite in this span. This game sets up very nicely for Josh Allen against a Broncos defense that’s 31st in pressure % and dead-last in opponent competition %.

Don’t judge the Bills based on their losing their most recent game, but judge them on how they play after losing their most recent game.

Packers (+3 to +9) vs. Steelers

Pittsburgh somehow has five wins this season despite ranking 27th in net yards per play. Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise that all five of those wins have come by seven points or less. 

The Steelers’ defense is a heavily overrated one, while the offense that ranks 29th in scoring doesn’t have enough firepower to prolong drives and pull away. While the Packers have plenty of issues of their own, they still rank 14th in net yards per play and have kept three of their five losses within one score, and their defense is allowing fewer points than Pittsburgh’s.

I also like what we’ve seen from Green Bay in the second half of this season. They lead the NFL in second-half scoring with 15.5 points, so if Pittsburgh does somehow pull away in the first half, I’m confident that the Packers will be able to narrow the gap before the final whistle.

Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.

Best Week 10 teaser spots

• Bills (-7 to -1)
• Packers (+3 to +9)
• Ravens vs. Browns (-6.5 to -0.5) 
• Commanders vs. Seahawks (+6.5 to +12.5)
• Texans vs. Bengals (+6.5 to +12.5)

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Browns don’t score a single touchdown against the Ravens. Cleveland is having a lot of trouble moving the football, ranking 29th in yards per play and 31st on third down, and they have a beat-up offensive line. Now they’ll face a Ravens defense that’s allowing just 13.8 points per game while ranking first in sacks. Deshaun Watson led the Browns to just 13 points in a matchup vs, Baltimore last season, and I expect a similar result on Sunday. 

The Commanders have plenty of flaws, but they’ve been good on the road this season, where they’ve both covered the spread and gone Over their team total in four of five games. While the Seahawks will be desperate for a bounce-back performance after getting pulverized by the Ravens, they’ve let teams like the Browns (with PJ Walker at QB), Cardinals, and Panthers hang around into the fourth quarter, so I think a blowout victory is unlikely.

These Texans play up to the competition and have covered the spread in four straight games as an underdog. That stretch includes three outright wins, and I think they can hang against the Bengals, who have an injury-ravaged receiver group and are in a difficult scheduling spot, in between games vs. the Bills last week with the Ravens on deck next week for Thursday Night Football. Houston has also been more efficient on both sides of the ball, ranking higher than Cincinnati in net yards per play both overall and over the last three games where the Bengals have turned their season around. 

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