The NFL is built on the promise that any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday.
Every week, double-digit underdogs cover, favorites get ambushed, and bettors who backed the wrong side watch their tickets turn to dust. This page tracks the biggest upsets in the NFL each week during the season, with results, betting context, and the numbers behind how badly the favorites got it wrong.
The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off Sept. 9 with the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch. Check back then for weekly upset results. In the meantime, explore the biggest upsets from the 2025 season below and find out what conditions tend to produce the NFL's most shocking results.
Biggest upsets of the 2025 NFL season
A look back at the most notable results from the 2025 NFL regular season, ranked by point spread at kickoff.
| Matchup | Result | Spread (winner) | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina def. Green Bay | 16-13 | +13 | The biggest upset of the 2025 NFL season by point spread. Panthers won in Green Bay despite being 13-point underdogs. |
| Minnesota def. Detroit | 27-24 | +9.5 | Happened simultaneously with the Panthers upset, turning the NFC North on its head. Prior to that Sunday, teams favored by more than 9 points were 11-0 straight up on the season. |
| Dallas def. Washington | 34-26 | +10.5 | Week 12 road upset. Cooper Rush threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions to stun the Commanders, who had just clinched a playoff berth the prior week. |
| Denver def. N.Y. Jets | 13-11 | +8 | Week 6, London. Bo Nix led the Broncos past the Jets as 8-point underdogs. Denver's defense sacked Justin Fields nine times as the Jets managed just 82 total yards of offense. |
| New England def. Cincinnati | 26-20 | +8 | Week 1 road upset. The Patriots, widely expected to finish with the league's worst record, knocked off Joe Burrow and the Bengals to open the season. |
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What makes an NFL upset?
In NFL betting, an upset occurs when the underdog wins outright, defying the point spread set by oddsmakers. The NFL's parity-driven structure makes upsets more common than in college football — the talent gap between the best and worst teams is smaller, and any given Sunday can genuinely produce almost any result. Still, double-digit underdogs win outright only a fraction of the time, making those results the most notable on any weekly slate.
The conditions that most often produce NFL upsets include weather that neutralizes a high-powered passing offense, a motivated underdog facing a complacent favorite coming off a big win, a starting quarterback injury that forces a backup into action on the favorite's side, or a divisional rivalry game where familiarity erases talent gaps. These situations don't guarantee upsets, but they consistently narrow the gap between what the spread implies and what the final score delivers.
From a betting standpoint, the most common approach to upset hunting in the NFL isn't necessarily picking the underdog to win outright — it's identifying spots where the favorite is overvalued and taking the points. A team covering a large spread in a loss still produces a winning ticket, and the NFL's week-to-week variance makes line shopping on underdogs one of the most reliable edges available to bettors who do their homework.
NFL upsets FAQs
Among the most notable upsets in modern NFL history, the New York Giants' 17-14 victory over the 18-0 New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII stands out for its magnitude. New England was a 12.5-point favorite entering the game. In regular season play, the biggest upsets have historically involved double-digit underdogs winning outright, which has happened only 13 times since 2005 according to historical spread data.
The Carolina Panthers' 16-13 win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 9 was the biggest upset of the 2025 NFL season by point spread. Carolina entered the game as 13-point road underdogs and won in Green Bay, part of a shocking Sunday that also saw the Vikings upset the Lions as 9.5-point underdogs in the same afternoon window.
NFL underdogs win outright roughly 33% of the time across all games, but that rate drops sharply as the spread grows. Teams getting more than 10 points have won outright only about 8% of the time since 2005, making double-digit upset wins genuinely rare events that carry significant betting and narrative weight when they occur.
The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off Wednesday, Sept. 9. Check back here each week for the biggest upsets from the weekend's slate, updated every Monday throughout the season.
