All four AFC South teams face off in Week 3, and the Houston Texans will hope to avoid falling further behind when they face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
CJ Stroud has to be wondering when he’s going to get some help following a heartbreaking loss to Tampa Bay on Monday night, and my early Texans vs. Jaguars predictions don't expect that help to show up in Week 3.
Here are my NFL picks for Sunday, September 21.
Texans vs Jaguars predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Texans vs Jaguars spread pick: Jaguars -1.5
CJ Stroud really needs his wide receivers to get healthy. The absence of Christian Kirk, Braxton Berrios, and Tank Dell has left Nico Collins in a spot where he can draw extra attention, and it’s hurting the Houston Texans' ability to push the ball down the field.
The offensive line isn’t helping things, looking more like a revolving door than a protective barrier. Stroud was pressured often by Tampa Bay and has spent more time running for his life than the Texans would like.
The absence of Joe Mixon is also a huge problem. Nick Chubb had one big run late in the game against the Bucs, but it was an exercise in futility much of the game when he was handed the ball.
That’s not a problem for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Liam Coen loves what he’s seeing from Travis Etienne Jr., who has rushed for 214 yards on 30 carries so far. Add in the solid performance by Bhayshul Tuten against the Bengals, and Trevor Lawrence has some help.
Tampa Bay rushed for 5.6 yards per attempt, and the Coen will use the ground game and quick hitters to Travis Hunter to help protect his quarterback behind a shaky line. That will also help open up the play-action game, an area where the Bucs hurt Houston.
The Texans won’t have that luxury, and Jacksonville’s pass rush will get to Stroud enough to help stall drives as the Jags cover the spread.
Early Texans vs Jaguars total pick: Under 43.5
Both offenses are hindered by their offensive lines, and both have pass rushers capable of living in the opposing backfield. That’s why I’m leaning Under, despite an already low total.
Lawrence is struggling when he’s pressured this season, which has been a lot, and he ranks 29th in average time to throw. He’s already committed three turnover-worthy plays through two games, and all three of his picks so far have come in situations where he wasn’t even blitzed.
We’ve already discussed how porous the Texans' offensive line is, and Stroud’s PFF passing grade ranks 37th of 40 so far this year. He’s making plays with his legs to extend drives, but he’s getting little help at the moment.
Jacksonville will want to run the ball, which will shorten the game. However, the penalties continue to be a major issue for the Jaguars, causing them to have to settle too often for Cam Little field goals.
The Texans will also try to run the ball, as they did against Tampa Bay, regardless of how futile it may be to give the ball to Chubb. And a lower number of explosive plays will help keep the total down as both offenses sputter too repeatedly.
Texans vs Jaguars odds
- Texans vs. Jaguars spread: Jaguars -1.5
- Texans vs. Jaguars moneyline: Texans +102, Jaguars -120
- Texans vs. Jaguars Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Texans vs Jaguars
- Texans vs. Jaguars matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Jacksonville, FL
- Venue: Everbank Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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