Through two weeks of action, most NFL survivor pools have a similar headcount to what they started with before the season.
There have been plenty of close calls, but no massive upsets that would chop a quarter of the field down. Unlike last season, when half the pool was toast before Week 3, 2025 has eased poolies into the excitement.
As we get deeper into the season, not only are you trying to pick a winner this week, but you are also setting yourself up for success down the road. That means stockpiling the top-tier favorites for a rainy day and finding spots to select those second-tier teams, with less potential later on.
I aim to do that in NFL Week 3, giving you my official survivor pool NFL picks as well as highlighting the “safest” pick on the board.
Teams used: Philadelphia, L.A. Rams
Best survivor pool bets for Week 3
Green Bay Packers
Buffalo Bills
My Pick: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: at Cleveland
Moneyline odds: -450 (81.82% implied win probability)
The Green Bay Packers check a lot of boxes for survivor pool players.
Green Bay looks great after two big wins and has a mini bye before playing the Cleveland Browns on the road in Week 3. Not only do the Cheeseheads have a solid implied win probability, but beyond this game, the path gets a little bumpier.
Green Bay has less future value than some of the other top teams, especially when you look from Week 10 on. The Packers also lose a lot of home edge with just two home games in the final six contests of the season.
I’m comfortable taking them this week, as we’re still in “don’t get cute” mode — especially with most entries alive. Like I always say, let the other folks eliminate themselves.
Safest Pick: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: vs. Miami (TNF)
Moneyline odds: -900 (90% implied win probability)
The Buffalo Bills put any remaining doubters to bed with a blowout win over the Jets in Week 2. Buffalo now has a short week due to Thursday Night Football — not my favorite spot for a survivor pick — but gets to face a floundering Miami Dolphins squad in Week 3.
Miami is messed up, and tight prep for the Bills is throwing gasoline on the fire in South Beach. Head coach Mike McDaniel is one bad loss away from being thrown into the ocean, and Tyreek Hill is reportedly plotting his exodus (with rumors the Chiefs are sniffing around).
The quick turnaround and travel aren’t doing this Fins defense any favors either. There are injuries up and down the stop unit, most concentrated in the secondary. Not exactly what you want with Josh Allen lining up across from you.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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