The Cowboys headline my Week 5 Survivor Pool picks as 9.5-point home favorites over the Buccaneers, with Kalshi giving Dallas an 85% win probability.
Detroit, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and Houston also make the shortlist, while survivor strategy this week hinges on whether fading the obvious chalk creates enough value.
Here are more NFL picks for Week 5 and matchup analysis.
Week 5 Survivor Pool rankings
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Win Probability |
Why They'll Win |
|---|---|---|
1.  Cowboys |
85% | Tampa won't have Mayfield, and this could be Dallas's biggest win probability for any game this season. |
2.  Lions |
70% | Detroit is 14-4 SU as a road favorite under Campbell (78%). |
3.  Bengals |
78% | Miami is favored to finish with the worst record in the NFL, and is every team's easiest game on the schedule. |
4.  Jaguars |
70% | Philadelphia might not have Barkley, Smith, or Johnson. |
5.  Texans |
75% | Houston has beaten Tennessee in six of the last seven meetings. |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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1. Cowboys (vs Buccaneers)
- Why to take them: Dallas is a 9.5-point favorite, and QB Dak Prescott is 19-2 SU in the regular season at home as a favorite of -7 or higher (90.5%).
- Why to save them: The Cowboys will be the most popular team in survivor this week and host the winless Titans in Week 11.
2. Lions (@ Cardinals)
- Why to take them: Detroit is 15-3 SU as favorites following a loss since hiring Campbell in 2021. Plus, the Lions might be quasi-contrarian because Dallas will be the most popular pick this week.
- Why to save them: Detroit hosting the Titans in Week 14 is a better situational spot for the Lions, who played in Carolina on Sunday Night Football in Week 4 and have to fly across the country to face Arizona.
3. Bengals (@ Dolphins)
- Why to take them: Miami is on fade notice until proven otherwise. The Dolphins have an NFL-worst -13.8 scoring margin this season, and Cincinnati's two losses are by a combined eight points.
- Why to save them: Cincy could be without All-Pro WR Ja'Marr Chase Sunday, who is in concussion protocol, and the Bengals host the Titans in Week 8, so they could be bigger favorites in that game.
4. Jaguars (vs Eagles)
- Why to take them: Jacksonville has the most experience with London games and is fully healthy. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts could be missing his two best weapons, and has the fourth-worst passing success rate among qualified starters.
- Why to save them: Even with Philly banged up, there are worse teams to fade, and the Jaguars still have two games against 0-4 Tennessee.
5. Texans (@ Titans)
- Why to take them: Tennessee is the second-lowest power-rated team in the AFC, and Houston has the third-best implied win probability this week.
- Why to save them: The bigger question is, "Should we use the 0-4 Texans in survivor at all?" Especially on the road in a division game. I'd rather pick Houston when it hosts Tennessee in Week 18.
Week 5 Survivor Pool strategy
This is a tough week because Dallas will likely be the most popular survivor pick this week. So, do you take the "free square," or be contrarian and hope Tampa Bay somehow pulls off an upset? It's hard to win a survivor league if you use the most popular team every week.
Three teams in my Top 5 for Week 5 are on the road, and the fourth is playing overseas. If you have the Pittsburgh Steelers available (I used them in Week 1), I'd consider them as a contrarian pick when they host the Indianapolis Colts.
Pittsburgh has extra rest after playing last Thursday, and Indy is in a difficult travel spot following its game in London this past weekend. That said, I'm not going to overthink it. The Cowboys are healthy on offense, and Prescott is reliable at home against bad teams.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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