Joe Burrow showed off his Houdini-like elusiveness versus the Chiefs’ blitz-happy defense — but are the Super Bowl odds for the talk of the town’s rushing prop bloated after a 25-yard performance in the AFC Championship game?
Our latest look at betting the Super Bowl examines the legs (not the arm) of Cincy's star QB. See what we're predicting for Burrow's rushing market for Super Bowl 56 player props.
Super Bowl 56 rushing yards odds
The odds below represent the best odds available for each player's touchdown market from regulated US sportsbooks.
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Joe Burrow rushing yards pick
- Joe Burrow Under 11.5 rushing yards
Pick made on February 3, 2022.
The Cincinnati quarterback pulled a few rabbits out of his hat versus the Chiefs and avoided a couple of sure-thing sacks which he turned upfield, tying a season-high with 25 rushing yards. He took off five times and had a long rush of 11 yards. It seems his rushing total has bloated because of that performance, as his 11.5 rushing yards is the highest it has opened all season, with an average opening total of 7 yards and a median of 6.5 yards.
Speaking of means (the average) and medians (the middle number from a set of data), Covers Daily and guest Captain Jack Andrews discussed the importance of looking at medians as opposed to averages in regards to player props and past performances. In Burrow’s 19 games this year, the former No. 1 overall pick is averaging 7.68 rushing yards per game, but because of the possibility of going over that number substantially compared to a low ceiling of -3 or -2 yards, this number (the average) is higher than his mean, which is just six yards. With such a difference between both the average (7.68 yards) and the mean (six yards), we’re pretty comfortable in saying this total is possibly three yards too high, which is a difference of 37.5%.
Burrow’s 25 rushing yards last week were impressive, but the Chiefs are a great matchup for quarterback rushing yards. Only five other teams allow more QB rushing yards than the Chiefs, at 22.9 per game. They blitz at a Top-7 rate and if QB’s can escape the pressure, there is plenty of green space for signal-callers. The Chiefs have the third-best QB hurry percentage in football, while the Rams surprisingly rank outside the Top-15 in QB hurry. Burrow's output versus the Chiefs may have also been read-specific.
On Saturday night, Joe Burrow told Zac Taylor that he saw an opportunity to scramble for rushing yards in Kansas City.
— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) January 31, 2022
Burrow then ran for a few of the biggest first downs of the game. Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu said he didn’t see that coming. pic.twitter.com/YuqtdyWtW0
The Rams also don’t allow quarterbacks to escape their pressure when they do create it. There isn’t one specific stat to judge this, but Raheem Morris’ defense finished third in the league in sacks (50) but ranked 24th in pressure percentage. It’s safe to say when this defense does generate pressure, a sack is a more likely outcome.
Quarterbacks have not had much success on the ground versus this defense, and even Kyler Murray managed just six yards on the ground versus the Rams in the Wild Card game. This is a defense that disguises its coverage better than any other team in football and could confuse the young QB, who has yet to face Morris’ defense.
We’re already starting to see this total slip and think it closes at 9.5 yards, which still might be a yard too long. We’re betting that Burrow can’t escape this Rams defense like he did the Chiefs'. It’s an Under 11.5 for us.
