Two teams looking to bolster their AFC playoff hopes will clash on Sunday Night Football when the Los Angeles Chargers host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
There are several matchup advantages for both teams that can be exploited to find great value in a few markets.
Here are my top Steelers vs. Chargers player props and NFL picks for November 9.
Steelers vs Chargers SNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Justin Herbert |
Over 252.5 passing yards | -114 |
| Kimani Vidal |
Longest rush Over 12.5 yards | -122 |
 Aaron Rodgers |
Over 22.5 pass completions | -108 |
Justin Herbert Over 252.5 passing yards (-114)
Justin Herbert is second in the NFL this season with 2,390 passing yards, averaging 265.6 yards through the air per game. The Pittsburgh Steelers are allowing 278.3 passing yards per game, the most of any NFL defense.
Herbert has thrown for at least 242 yards in six of his nine games this season. He has hit this passing yardage total in four of his nine games. Surprisingly, with their offensive line injuries, Herbert has averaged a time to throw of 2.92 seconds this season, and 13.2% of his attempts have taken 4.0 seconds or longer.
The Steelers blitz a ton but have been mediocre at actually getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If Herbert gets plenty of time to throw against this secondary, he is going to have a field day. I love his yardage prop here.
Kimani Vidal longest rush Over 12.5 yards (-122)
The Steelers' defense ranks 25th in the NFL this season in defending runs outside the tackles. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers rank second in the NFL in running outside the tackles. This will be a big advantage for a guy like Kimani Vidal, who is more of a big-play threat than a volume yardage guy.
Vidal has been the main running back for four games now for the Chargers. He has two excellent games and two bad games. In his two good games, he had a long rush of 38 and 21 yards. Those games were against the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings.
Vidal is not great at forcing missed tackles, but he can get outside and use his speed to get into the secondary before facing a tackler. This is especially true if they run away from T.J. Watt’s side of the ball, where the Steelers have been especially vulnerable to long runs.
Aaron Rodgers Over 22.5 pass completions (-108)
It has been a great rebound season for Aaron Rodgers after missing his first year with the Jets and then struggling in his second year. He has an impressive 68.7% completion percentage, which would be his third-best number ever in a season behind two years in which he won league MVP.
The Chargers have utilized zone coverage on 84.5% of dropbacks this season, which is the second-highest in the NFL. Rodgers has thrown nine touchdowns against zone coverage this season, which is tied for the second-most in the NFL. He has also completed 72.7% of his attempts against zone, while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.
Rodgers is going to take what is given to him and pick apart the zone defense with quick passes and crossing routes. This might not be a great game to play his yardage total, but it is a great opportunity to play his completions, especially in a game where they are underdogs.
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Steelers vs Chargers SNF prop betting card
- Justin Herbert Over 252.5 passing yards (-114)
- Kimani Vidal longest rush Over 12.5 yards (-122)
- Aaron Rodgers Over 22.5 pass completions (-108)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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