Best NFL Sack Prop Picks for Week 3: Jones Wreaks Havoc Against Bears Interior

You won't find sack props as easily as it is sifting through NFL odds for skill position players, but several bigger books are starting to put out sack odds on the league's top pass rushers.

I'm looking at two of the NFL's best this week as I back Chris Jones against a brutal Bears offensive line, while also putting my money on T.J. Watt. Here are my favorite NFL picks when it comes to sack props in the Week 3 odds slate.

Latest Week 3 sack props

• Jadeveon Clowney to record a sack - No
• Chris Jones Over 0.25 sacks
• Arden Key Over 0.75 sacks
• T.J. Watt to record a sack - Yes

Picks made on September 23 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Best Week 1 sack picks

Colts vs Ravens sack prop: Jadeveon Clowney

Jadeveon Clowney is coming off a quiet season where he had just two sacks in 11 games. Clowney came away with a sack in his Baltimore Ravens debut in Week 1, but he was shutout in the sack column last week and he has a pass rush grade of just 57.2 this year according to Pro Football Focus. 

This week, Clowney and the Ravens host an Indianapolis Colts team that has allowed four sacks this year. However, none of those sacks have come against Colts tackles Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann, who both do an effective job of sealing the edge. In fact, a couple of those sacks should be blamed on quarterback Anthony Richardson. With the rookie sidelined this week, veteran backup Gardner Minshew should do a better job of getting rid of the ball.

In addition, Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to make for some messy weather, which could lead to fewer pass attempts for Minshew. With so many factors working against Clowney, fade him on his sacks total.

Jadeveon Clowney prop: To record a sack - No (-125 at bet365)

Bears vs Chiefs: Chris Jones

The Kansas City Chiefs missed All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones in Week 1, but he was back and wreaking havoc last Sunday, picking up a pair of sacks and four hurries against the Jaguars.

Jones had 15.5 sacks and a pass rush grade of 92.2 last year and might be the best interior pass rusher in the game. He should be in for another big performance this week against an ugly Chicago Bears offense that has already allowed 10 sacks.

Justin Fields has been holding on to the ball way too long while going through his reads, and while Chicago's tackles have actually been half-decent, the interior has been a disaster. Left guard Cody Whitehair has a pass-blocking grade of 39.8 while right guard Nate Davis enters this contest at 26.8.

Expect Jones to tear through that line and get to Fields at least once on Sunday. 

Chris Jones prop: Over 0.25 sacks (-150 at DraftKings)

Titans vs Browns sack prop: Arden Key

Arden Key had a fantastic debut for the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, racking up 11 pressures and 1.5 sacks against the Saints. Although Key was shut down by Chargers All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater last week, he looks primed for a bounce-back performance against the Cleveland Browns.

Despite the stellar reputation of Cleveland's line, the Browns have allowed nine sacks this year, and left tackle Jedrick Wills has been the biggest liability. Wills has a pass-blocking grade of 57.9 and has allowed a sack in each game this year.

The Browns should also look to pass more after losing Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury. More dropbacks for Deshaun Watson should mean many prime opportunities for Key to record a sack.

Arden Key prop: Over 0.75 sacks (+170 at DraftKings)

Sunday Night football sack prop: T.J. Watt

The Las Vegas Raiders have yet to allow a single sack this season, but they'll face their toughest task yet when they go up against a ferocious Pittsburgh Steelers pass rush on Sunday night. Left tackle Kolton Miller is a stud and will likely match up against Alex Highsmith, but right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor gets the enviable task of matching up against T.J. Watt.

Watt had a sack against the Browns last week following racking up three against the 49ers in the season opener. The outside linebacker tallied 22.5 sacks in just 15 games in 2021 before struggling through an injury-plagued campaign last year. His pass rush grade of 92.2 through the first two games is a good indication that his injury problems are behind him. 

Eluemunor is solid, but he isn't on T.J.'s level. Backing Watt to get a sack at close to even money isn't something you're going to see often, so let's take advantage of it.

T.J. Watt prop: To record a sack (-125 at bet365)

How are sack props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will typically count as the player recording a sack. 

Best strategies to bet sack props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

Other defensive player betting props

Sportsbooks are starting to put out other props for defensive players. That includes markets involving tackles (both solo tackles and combined tackles) as well as interceptions. 

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