The New England Patriots take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC title game, and the Seattle Seahawks host either the Chicago Bears or L.A. Rams in the NFC finale.
Our NFL picks are split between just two spreads and two totals, but when you wager on these conference title lines, it could make all the difference.
I highlight the best spreads and totals to jump on right away, as well as which ones you may want to wait for market movement.
Here are my “Bet Now, Bet Later” NFL picks for Championship Sunday.
NFL predictions: Conference Championships bet now, bet later picks
- Patriots at Broncos (Under 41.5): Bet Now
- Patriots at Broncos (+4.5): Bet Later
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (Under 41.5): Bet Now
By now, you’ve heard the Denver Broncos lost QB Bo Nix to an ankle injury at the end of Saturday’s win over Buffalo. That leaves this pop-gun offense in the hands of backup Jarrett Stidham, who hasn’t thrown a pass that matters in two seasons.
Before the Nix injury, the look-ahead total for this AFC title game pairing was 45.5. Books adjusted that number to 40.5 ahead of the New England Patriots’ win over Houston on Sunday. Books opened the official total at 41.5 points.
The Patriots benefited from an error-plagued performance from Texans QB C.J. Stroud, which helped their offensive effort appear stronger than it really was. New England scored a defensive touchdown, averaged only 4.0 yards per play, and had three turnovers of its own against Houston’s top-tier defense.
The Broncos present more of the same. Denver ranks among the top stop units in the land and will lean heavily on that defense to keep the team within striking distance next Sunday. The Broncos' playbook was conservative with Nix, but it will be very vanilla with Stidham as it tries to lure the Pats into a low-scoring grinder.
If you like the Under, you’ll want to grab the highest number you can find quickly because this is going down.
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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+4.5): Bet Later
Before Nix went down, Denver was a 1.5-point home favorite against New England, according to the look-ahead lines. After his injury, that early spread jumped the fence to Broncos +4.5, and the official opener followed suit.
In the opening minutes of action for the AFC Championship Game, we’re seeing some expensive Patriots -4.5 start to bubble up to -115. That shift in vig indicates a market move to -5 or beyond (BetMGM is already dealing -5.5), and from there bookmakers will move quickly through the dead numbers to -6, should steady money show up on New England.
I believe there is an appetite for Denver if this spread grows larger. The Broncos not only have the home advantage and a coaching edge with Sean Payton, but this Denver defense is among the best in the land.
We just watched Drake Maye struggle against the Texans' top-tier stop unit on Sunday, with three turnovers and just 4.0 yards per play, amassing a mere 13 first downs – despite extra possessions (31:35) thanks to five takeaways from the defense.
Keep an eye on the spread and see if this hits Broncos +6 later in the week, but don’t wait too long. As mentioned, I think wiseguys will snap up Denver if bookmakers get generous with the points on the home pup.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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