Week 14 brings one of the strongest plus-money boards of the season, headlined by a quarterback in a prime spot to throw just two plus-money touchdowns, another passer playing with his back against the wall who’s live for three, and a slept-on wideout poised for double-digit targets again.
With soft defensive matchups, clear usage trends, and market numbers that haven’t fully adjusted, it’s an ideal week to attack mispriced ceilings and hunt value in our NFL picks.
NFL Week 14 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes |
Over 1.5 passing TDs | +114 |
 Bo Nix |
3+ passing TDs | +390 |
 Adonai Mitchell |
7+ receptions | +630 |
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
The Houston Texans' defense is certainly baked into this number, but the Kansas City Chiefs are still a healthy, pass-first offense that can’t afford any more flat spots. Patrick Mahomes has historically been one of the NFL’s best late-season quarterbacks, going 29-7 straight up in December and January regular-season games.
At home this year, he’s thrown 14 touchdowns to four interceptions across six games at Arrowhead, and projections have him at 1.61 TDs versus the 1.5 implied at this price.
I’d love to get cute and chase J.J. McCarthy at a longer number, but I’d much rather back Mahomes at +114 than McCarthy at +154. Mahomes simply doesn’t mail in games around the holidays.
Bo Nix 3+ passing touchdowns
The Denver Broncos should be in range for four or more touchdowns indoors against the Las Vegas Raiders, and most of that scoring should come through the air.
With J.K. Dobbins out, Denver simply can’t run the ball — RJ Harvey has been ineffective the last two weeks, and the offense has posted just 3.8 and 2.8 yards per carry.
Only two teams in the league have averaged fewer yards per carry over the last three games. If Denver gets to 25 points, Bo Nix will be responsible for the bulk of it. His weapons are all producing, and the Raiders will have trouble handling Evan Engram, Courtland Sutton, and Troy Franklin.
Nix is my favorite alt over TD play of the week.
Adonai Mitchell 7+ receptions
In his three games as a member of the New York Jets, Adonai Mitchell has racked up 25 targets.
Only Puka Nacua, Jaylen Waddle, AJ Brown, and Wan’Dale Robinson have had a higher target share over that span. Mitchell posted a massive 38.7% share last week while hauling in eight catches.
He’s in a strong spot to repeat that volume against a Miami Dolphins defense that allows the highest completion percentage in the league. The Dolphins’ 73% rate is the worst mark since 2018.
Miami is giving up catches in bunches, and one of the most heavily targeted receivers in football should pile them up again on Sunday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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