It was a great weekend for yours truly, capped by a perfect 3-0 SU in the Wild Card Round for 9.3 total units.
The Divisional Round is here, and the action continues with my favorite plus-money NFL picks for the upcoming four-game slate.
NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Bo Nix |
40+ yards rushing | +320 |
 Rhamondre Stevenson |
25+ receiving yards | +122 |
 Jake Tonges |
Most receptions in SF/SEA | +890 |
Bo Nix 40+ yards rushing
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix raised his rushing profile when it mattered most, totaling 91 yards on 17 carries with a touchdown in Weeks 17 and 18, compared with just 16.5 yards on 3.8 carries over his previous 10 games.
The matchup sets up perfectly, as Nix is set to face a Buffalo Bills defense allowing an NFL-high 6.54 yards per carry to quarterbacks and the fourth-most QB rushing yards overall.
Trevor Lawrence recently posted his season-high rushing total against this unit, with designed QB runs clearly emphasized in the game plan. Look for Nix to have a similar impact on the ground Saturday.
Rhamondre Stevenson 25+ receiving yards
Rhamondre Stevenson should be heavily involved in the passing game this weekend, with the Houston Texans’ pressure likely to force Drake Maye to get the ball out quickly.
Expect plenty of early checkdowns to a back who is playing more snaps, running as many routes as the New England Patriots' wide receivers, and averaging 41 receiving yards per game over his last six contests.
Stevenson has cleared this number in five of those six games and led the Wild Card Round in receiving yards with 75 on just four targets. He’s a long shot at +2700 to lead the game in receiving, which becomes even more intriguing if Nico Collins (concussion) is limited or out.
With this matchup discouraging downfield throws, Stevenson is a logical safety valve all afternoon.
Jake Tonges to record the most receptions in SF/SEA
Let’s take another swing at the Game Leaders market after cashing last week with Colston Loveland at +450.
Jake Tonges is priced as the third favorite to lead this game in receptions, which feels light given the role he showed without George Kittle. In that spot, Tonges saw nine targets, caught seven passes, and led the San Francisco 49ers in both targets and receptions — just one catch shy of the game high.
If the Seattle Seahawks lean on the run, Jaxon Smith-Njigba could make his impact on limited targets, opening the door for Tonges. Christian McCaffrey is the biggest obstacle on San Francisco’s side, but +890 is a price worth taking. If Seattle jumps out to an early lead, that path becomes even clearer.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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