Thursday Night Football Computer Picks: Our Best Week 5 Player Prop Projections

It's the return of the Mac, as the Niners backup QB steps into TNF against the Rams, but our NFL player prop projections still favor him to go Over his passing total.

Jared Hochman - Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Jared Hochman • Content Manager
Oct 2, 2025 • 11:24 ET • 4 min read
49ers vs Rams computer picks Mac Jones
Photo By - Imagn Images. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones throws a pass.

Week 5 kicks off with a TNF matchup between the 49ers and the Rams.

San Fran is missing its quarterback — and basically every pass catcher — but our NFL player prop projections have still found some TNF props with value, including both teams going Over in the passing game.

49ers vs Rams computer picks for Thursday Night Football

49ers 49ers Rams Rams
Jones o214.5 pass -110 Stafford o236.5 pass -110
McCaffrey o63.5 rush -110 Williams o9.5 rec -110
Bourne o39.5 rec yard -110 Williams u67.5 rush -110
Tonges o27.5 rec -110 Nacua o96.5 rec -115

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49ers TNF computer picks

Mac Jones Over 214.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 250.11 yards

The 49ers backup QB will likely be playing from behind, so our projections expect him to cruise past his yardage total (even if it's garbage time).

Alternate-total bet
250+ yards (+225) - Shows very good value. Can also play 225+ yards at +115 if you want something a little less risky.

Christian McCaffrey Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 67.6 yards

CMC will be involved, but it won't necessarily be on the ground as he's projected to fall below his total against a tough Rams run defense.

Kendrick Bourne Over 39.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 47.36 yards

The last man standing in the San Fran WR room, we're projecting Bourne to get at least 40+ receiving yards tonight.

Jake Tonges Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 35.32 yards

Our projections also expect the backup tight end to chip in, hitting 30+ yards on TNF.


More Thursday Night Football picks from Covers


Rams TNF computer picks

Matthew Stafford Over 236.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 267.13 yards

Our projection sees the Rams QB slinging it tonight, easily going past his posted yardage total.

Alternate-total bet
250+ yards (+125) - Very good value on this prop.

Kyren Williams Over 9.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 13.01 yards

Williams has posted 14+ receiving yards in three straight games, and our projections expect him to finish around there again.

Kyren Williams Under 67.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 66.39 yards

Our projections don't forecast a big rushing game for LA's RB1, due to both usage rate and possible blowout potential.

Puka Nacua Over 96.5 receiving yards (-115)

Projection: 102.66 yards

The Rams' star receiver is forecasted to eclipse the 100-yard mark for the fourth time in five games tonight.

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Jared Hochman Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Content Manager

Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King's College in, Halifax, N.S., "Hoch" brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers' NHL Puck Props. 

Awarded Covers' company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop, which is something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.

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