A trip to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs will be on the line when the LA Chargers square off against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium tonight.
The Patriots are -3.5 betting favorites at the best NFL betting sites. SNF props are also available to bet on now.
Below, we will take a look at NFL player prop projections for all of the top offensive players in this clash.
Our computer projects big statistical nights from Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Stefon Diggs, and Hunter Henry.
Chargers vs Patriots computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Chargers |
 Patriots |
|---|---|
| Herbert Over 221.5 passing yards -110 | Maye Under 243.5 passing yards -112 |
| Hampton anytime touchdown +130 | Henderson Under 54.5 rushing yards -114 |
| McConkey Over 39.5 rushing yards -114 | Diggs Over 52.5 receiving yards -114 |
| Gadsden Over 30.5 receiving yards -108 | Henry Over 40.5 receiving yards -110 |
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Chargers SNF computer picks
Justin Herbert Over 221.5 passing yards (-110)
Projection: 222.3 yards
The Patriots' defense hasn’t allowed a quarterback to top 200 passing yards in two months, but that stat is misleading. New England has benefited from facing a string of bottom-of-the-barrel quarterbacks.
Here’s a look at the QBs they’ve faced over their last seven games:
- Quinn Ewers
- Brady Cook
- Lamar Jackson
- Tyler Huntley
- Josh Allen
- Jaxson Dart
- Joe Flacco
- Justin Fields
Of that list, only Jackson and Allen stand out as top-shelf QBs at the moment — and Jackson was injured midway through New England’s win over Baltimore.
That said, you can only face the teams on your schedule, and Mike Vrabel is a master at taking away an opponent’s strength.
In the Pats’ last meeting against Allen and the Bills, the Pats' defense held Allen to just 193 yards passing. I expect a similar story to play out here with Herbert.
I’ll start by disagreeing with our computer, and take the Herbert Under.
Omarion Hampton anytime touchdown (+130)
Projection: Yes (+130)
The Patriots had the league’s best run defense before injuries began to pile up.
The good news for New England is that the unit is close to full strength again, with LB Robert Spillane and DT Milton Williams ready to go against the Chargers.
I’d lean Under on Hampton’s rushing yardage, but this prop is about finding the end zone. Hampton has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his last two games.
If the Patriots build a big second-half lead, Hampton could still find paydirt in garbage time.
I’ll agree with the computer and say Yes to a Hampton TD.
Ladd McConkey Over 39.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 55.2 yards
As McConkey fantasy football owners know, it’s hard to trust the slot receiver when it comes to racking up stats. Here are his receiving yardage totals for his last six contests:
- vs. Texans: 31 yards
- at Cowboys: 43 yards
- at Chiefs: 20 yards
- vs. Eagles: 12 yards
- vs. Raiders: 39 yards
- at Jaguars: 13 yards
During those games, Keenan Allen was targeted more times than McConkey (29-26).
Jim Harbaugh’s offense works best when it’s a balanced attack, so I don’t expect any Chargers to put up gaudy numbers against a stout Pats defense.
I’ll take the McConkey Under, here, while the computer projects him for 55.2 receiving yards, well past the number.
Oronde Gadsden Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 35.5 receiving yards
He did have one monster outing in October against the Colts back in Week 7, piling up 164 receiving yards.
But in December, his production cratered. He had two games, one against Dallas and one against Philadelphia, with just seven receiving yards, and he’s gone Under 20 receiving yards three other times this season.
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Patriots SNF computer picks
Drake Maye Under 243.5 passing yards
Projection: 229.5 passing yards
Los Angeles has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards in the NFL this season, and they are eighth in Def Passing DVOA.
The last time Maye faced an elite pass defense was against the Bills on Dec. 14. In that game, he threw for a season-low 155 yards.
I think Maye will have an efficient game against the Chargers, but clearing 243.5 yards is a bit much in his first-ever playoff start.
I’ll agree with our AI here and take the Under.
Stefon Diggs Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 55.5 receiving yards
It feels like the Patriots have “saved” Diggs for special occasions this season. New England’s two biggest wins of the year came on Sunday Night Football, with Diggs as the headliner.
Against the Bills on Oct. 5, Diggs was targeted a season-high 12 times and posted a season-high 146 yards receiving.
Facing Baltimore on Dec. 21, Diggs was targeted 10 times and hauled in 138 yards.
It’s playoff time, and all the cards are on the table. Expect Diggs to be heavily featured in New England’s game plan.
The computer and I both like the Diggs Over.
TreVeyon Henderson Under 54.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 50.8 yards
Rhamondre Stevenson has seen a recent uptick in carries in New England’s backfield.
However, with the playoffs here and turnovers magnified, I don’t expect Stevenson to maintain that workload given his fumbling issues. Those touches should shift back to Henderson, who has been out-touching Stevenson for months anyway.
The Chargers sport a middle-of-the-pack run defense, ranking 18th in Defensive Rushing DVOA. Combined with the likelihood that Henderson pushes for 20-plus carries, that makes the Over an appealing play.
My bot buddy disagrees, as it likes the Henderson Under.
Hunter Henry Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 43.7 yards
Some of the top tight ends in the NFL have found success against the Chargers' defense this season. Travis Kelce (70 yards vs. L.A. on Dec. 14), Dallas Goedert (78 yards), Brock Bowers (63 yards), and Tyler Warren (69 yards) have all posted strong receiving performances against the L.A. defense during the 2025–26 season.
I consider Henry to be at least in the top half of the NFL in terms of receiving tight ends. He should be able to reach this number.
I’ll agree with the computer and take the Over.
Not intended for use in MA.
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