It’s officially “spooky season”, with Halloween kicking off the weekend on Friday night. For many, that means scary movies.
My son and I like to sit through some creepy classics, but whether we’re watching “The Silence of the Lambs”, “The Shining”, or do the “It” double feature, I’ll be cool as a cucumber with nerves of steel.
You see, nothing can scare me now. Not after witnessing the horrors of NFL Week 8.
As someone who writes an NFL picks column limited only to underdogs, this past week’s slate was like sitting through “The Ring”, “The Blair Witch Project”, “The Exorcist”, and “Hereditary” back-to-back-to-back-to-back.
When the screaming finally stopped on Monday night, NFL underdogs finished with a 2-11 ATS record on the closing lines. That was the worst weekly result for teams getting the points in the history of NFL betting – edging the 2-10-1 ATS blood bath in Week 3 of the 1998 season.
But like most horror flicks, the night is always darkest before the dawn. When all hope is lost and our heroes are surrounded by zombies, someone shows up to save the day.
I’m hoping those “savior someones” can be my best NFL picks for Week 9.
To quote all-time baddy buster Ash Williams, “Come get some”. Good luck and Happy Halloween.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 12-12 (-1.34 units)
NFL Week 9 predictions and picks
Steelers +3
Falcons +5.5
Bills +2.5Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
Best bet: Steelers +3
(-105 at FanDuel)
Three home underdogs went down in that Week 8 “puppy purge”, one of which was the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost 35-25 to Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on SNF.
The Steelers find themselves catching points at home for the second straight week, getting a field goal against the upstart Indianapolis Colts in Week 9.
An improbable 7-1 start for Indianapolis is impressive, but that has been helped along by a softer schedule and plenty of home cooking. This trip to the Steel City is just the fourth away game for the Colts and only the second outdoor outing for Indy.
Pittsburgh has dropped back-to-back games, and in a strange twist, it’s the defense at fault. This normally stout stop unit has been bullied, allowing a collective 68 points on 924 total yards against in those defeats.
Offensively, Aaron Rodgers & Co. are holding this together. The Steelers sit in or just outside of the Top 10 in many advanced metrics, with a strong ground game anchoring this playbook. Pittsburgh is No. 4 in rushing DVOA, No. 6 in success rate per handoff, and No. 10 in EPA per run.
Taking to the testy turf at Acrisure Stadium is the best plan of attack for the Steelers in Week 9.
Indy's defense has seen the second-lowest run rate from foes, but it ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in several run defense measurements. Those rotten run-stopping results come despite facing some deplorable or depleted rushing offenses.
The Colts have taken on Las Vegas (32nd in run DVOA), Arizona (29th), Tennessee twice (26th), Denver (18th), and Miami (18th), along with an L.A. Chargers backfield pulling RBs off the practice squad.
In the one matchup against a legitimate rushing offense, Indianapolis allowed 102 yards on the ground to the L.A. Rams (5th) in their lone loss of the year.
Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) at New England Patriots
Best bet: Falcons +5.5
(-110 at bet365)
We get a massive contrast in public perception for this non-conference clash.
The New England Patriots are the hottest team in the league. They ride a five-game winning streak, cashing in for loyal bettors in each of those outings.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 24-point home loss to Miami and are now shipping out to Boston in Week 9.
As bad as that loss to the Dolphins was, let’s not forget the Atlanta offense was in the aging hands of backup QB Kirk Cousins, who was also without top WR Drake London.
London and starting QB Michael Penix Jr. are officially day-to-day heading toward the weekend. The defense could also see key cogs back this Sunday. Safety Jessie Bates, CB Billy Bowman Jr., DL Zach Harrison, and edge Jalon Walker also got the “day to day” tag from head coach Raheem Morris.
Atlanta is going to need all those defenders in action to contain Drake Maye and this explosive New England attack. The Patriots' second-year QB has been slinging it, sitting second in completed air yards as well as big plays, with 29 completions of 20-plus yards.
Morris’ defense doesn’t give up home runs, limiting foes to 4.9 yards per play and allowing a league-low 11 completed passes of 20 or more yards. Atlanta’s zone-centric schemes are the perfect foil for Maye’s deep shots, as he is elite against man-to-man but sees a downtick in completion rate, catchable balls, and overall passer rating versus zone.
And for what it’s worth, the Falcons have a habit of playing up or down to their competition. We’ve seen Atlanta stand strong against the likes of Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Minnesota, but also lay eggs against Carolina and Miami.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)
Best bet: Bills +2.5
(-115 at DraftKings)
Stop me if you’re getting déjà vu, too. The Buffalo Bills have a bone to pick with the Kansas City Chiefs after their season ended at Arrowhead in the playoffs.
I feel like this storyline has gotten more retreads than “Friday the 13th”.
The Bills have had good success against KC in the regular season (4-1 SU/ATS last five meetings), but can’t seem to win when it counts. Whelp, we’ll worry about that in January.
As for Sunday’s showdown, Buffalo has plenty of edges. The Bills enjoyed a bye in Week 7, which gave them a head start on scheming for the Chiefs before last weekend’s cake walk over Carolina. Kansas City is also on a short week after beating Washington at home on Monday.
Bills Mafia will leave no table intact, with Buffalo riding that home-field juice to a 4-1 SU/ATS record as home pups since 2020.
The most important edge for the Bills, however, is their rushing game. Buffalo is going to go heavy with RB James Cook and QB Josh Allen, who can pull back the curtain on this Kansas City defense.
The Chiefs have been very stingy during this current turnaround, but a lot of that has to do with building big leads early. That’s forcing opponents to abandon the run (third-lowest run rate against in the last three games) and throw into the teeth of this Steve Spagnoulo scheme.
Kansas City is near the bottom of the league in run stop win rate at ESPN, 23rd in run stop rating at PFF, and sits No. 22 in EPA allowed per handoff. In their last three head-to-head battles, the Bills have marched for 433 total rushing yards on 102 attempts.
Buffalo’s dominance with the run in 2025 has made it the top “TOP” team in the league, chewing through 33:14 worth of possession per game and limiting opponents’ opportunities with the football.
Given the Bills’ own defensive shortcomings, I expect Buffalo to hammer the ground game and try to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline — where he can’t break the hearts of Bills fans... or at least not until the playoffs.
My NFL Underdogs column is 12-12 this season for -1.34 units.
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