"Oh, that’s going to fall apart."
Those are my wife’s words when I told her about my recent hot streak.
After putting up a perfect 3-0 ATS with my NFL picks last week, my "NFL Underdogs" column is a sizzling 11-2-2 ATS over the last five weeks.
But in our 15+ years together, my wife has become very familiar with the flighty nature of the gambling gods. She knows what I know, regression comes for us all.
And it’s not just my underdog picks that are bound to go bust. It’s all underdogs.
Point spread pups are on a tear the last three weeks, covering at a 60% clip and coming off a 10-6 ATS run during Thanksgiving Week. And with the calendar flipping to December, we normally see underdog success sink.
Since 2015, underdogs have gone from a 52% cover rate in the first 13 weeks of the schedule to 49% ATS in the home stretch. Last year, dogs barely barked in the final five weeks, boasting a 30-44-1 ATS record (40%), ruining Christmas for all those taking the points.
Will we hear the jingle of "Regression the Red-Nosed Reindeer" this holiday season?
Here are my top underdog picks and predictions for NFL Week 14.
Last week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 23-14-2 ATS (+6.52 units)
NFL Week 14 predictions and picks
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Cowboys +3.5
Jets +3
Jaguars +1.5
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) at Detroit Lions
Best bet: Cowboys +3.5
(-122 at Pinnacle)
How bad are things on the Detroit Lions’ offensive line?
Retired center Frank Ragnow was asked to put down the fishing rod and return to the o-line, but couldn’t pass the physical. That’s how bad.
Detroit’s pass protection is in pieces, and quarterback Jared Goff has been feeling “Pacino vs. De Niro” levels of heat, suffering eight sacks and constant hounding over the past three games.
The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 14 with one of the premier pass rushes in the NFL, sitting No. 1 in pressure rate per dropback, QB hits, and QB hurries.
Dallas has collected eight sacks during its current three-game winning streak, including three on Patrick Mahomes last Thursday, and has really found its footing on that side of the football since a fateful Week 10 bye.
Not only are the Cowboys causing chaos for opposing passers, but the run-stop unit has benefited from the additions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, as well as the return of LB DeMarvion Overshown. Dallas sits 10th in EPA allowed per carry and seventh in opponent success rate per run since Week 11.
That ability to slam the door on rival runners and get after the QB seems like a perfect combo for keeping things close in Motown this Thursday.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3)
Best bet: Jets +3
(-120 at FanDuel)
When the Miami Dolphins take the field at a chilly MetLife Stadium on Sunday, it will be the team’s first true road game since October 26.
Due to Miami’s trip to Spain in Week 11 and a bye in Week 12, the Fins have been a bit coddled by the schedule. That helped the Dolphins’ surprise surge in November, as they've won three of their last four games.
In another strange twist, Miami has been outgained in two of those victories and barely beat New Orleans in yardage (298 to 294) for a 21-17 squeaker in Week 13. The same thing happened in the first meeting between these AFC East rivals in Week 4.
The New York Jets outgained the Fins by 104 yards, but three turnovers morphed into a 27-21 home win for the Dolphins.
And speaking of the Jets, they’ve quietly been one of the best bets in the NFL. New York is 3-2 SU in its last five games while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in that span. Even in the two losses, New York was behind by only one score in the fourth quarter versus the Ravens and Patriots.
Gang Green’s defense has taken some time to adjust to injuries, trades, and Aaron Glenn’s new schemes, but it's been consistently stiff against the run. That’s especially true since the Week 10 bye, ranking 12th in opponent success rate per carry.
Bottling up Miami RB De’Von Achane is priority No. 1 this Sunday. The Dolphins have handed off more than any team in the league the past three games, getting good gains on the ground and limiting touches for “ticking time bomb” Tua Tagovailoa.
He’s attempted more than 26 passes only once in the past five games, completing 66% of those throws and posting an embarrassing 6-to-6 TD-to-INT count. New York will sell out to stuff Achane and put the game in Tua’s hands.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Best bet: Jaguars +1.5
(-105 at FanDuel)
The Indianapolis Colts are no longer catching anyone by surprise. After a red-hot start to the 2025 season, the other (horse)shoe is apparently dropping for Indianapolis, and the leg attached to it is in rough shape.
Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured fibula and has limited mobility, but the team really has no other option at QB. And opponents know it.
We’ve seen recent foes go all in on stuffing RB Jonathan Taylor, forcing Jones to beat them through the air. He’s completed just 58% of his passes for 181 and 201 yards with four touchdowns the past two games – both losses.
The Jacksonville Jaguars will test Jones’ wheels with one of the best pass rushes in the league. Jacksonville may only have 24 sacks, but it's in the Top 10 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, as well as QB hits and hurries. All that chaos has generated 20 takeaways, including 13 interceptions.
Jacksonville definitely has shortcomings, and its recent success (winning four of its last five) has been against some softer opponents. That said, four of those five games were on the road, and the Jags get to host a Colts team that is 1-3 SU in its last four away games.
My NFL Underdogs column is 23-14-2 ATS this season for +6.52 units.
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