When you think of Thanksgiving, you think turkey.
But there are a number of folks who opt for ham or a nice roast as their holiday meal.
And when you think of NFL Thanksgiving, you think of betting favorites.
But here I am with a plateful of the points for my NFL Week 13 picks in the most “public” week of the season.
With a flood of casual gamblers getting down bets in Week 13, bookies are begging the underdogs to show up — or at least cover the spread.
Since 2020, Thanksgiving Week chalk is 53-24 SU (69% outright), which is great for those moneyline favorite parlays that are about as popular as pumpkin pie on the holiday break. But those faves are just 36-39-2 against the spread — a 52% ATS win rate for underdogs.
Could those publicly pounded point spreads mimic our waistlines this Thanksgiving Week and get a little “inflated”? Let’s hope.
Here are my best underdog NFL picks and predictions for Week 13.
Last week: 1-1-1 ATS (-0.12 units)
Season: 20-14-2 (+3.79 units)
NFL Week 13 predictions and picks
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Houston Texans +4.5
Carolina Panthers +10.5
Green Bay Packers +2.5
Houston Texans (+4.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Best bet: Houston Texans +4.5
(-115 at FanDuel)
This is a massive game in the AFC South, and I’m going to grab the points with the Houston Texans on the other side of the underrated key number of four.
This spread opened as short as Houston +3.5 but jumped to +4.5 with quarterback C.J. Stroud still in concussion protocol. According to Texans beat reports, however, Stroud is expected to be cleared ahead of Sunday’s trip to Lucas Oil Field.
Stroud struggled to start the season but was showing signs of life just before suffering that concussion in Week 9. A few factors played into those early results that won’t be there in Week 13.
For one, Stroud took on some top-tier defenses like the Rams, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Broncos. He was playing behind a retooled offensive line (which has looked much stronger of late) and missing plenty of weapons at the skill positions.
Most notably, four of his first six games were on the road, and three of those were outdoors. For his career, Stroud has seen significant splits between indoor/outdoor, including his completion rate dropping below 60% in open-air venues versus 67% inside. His yards per attempt also fluctuate greatly depending on whether there’s a roof or not.
Even if Stroud does sit and Davis Mills gets another go, the Texans' defense remains dominant. Houston is a Top 3 stop unit no matter how the advanced analytics want to slice it: EPA allowed, opponent success rate, DVOA, and PFF rating.
The Indianapolis Colts managed 20 points versus Kansas City last week, but were gifted a touchdown on a freak INT just outside the end zone early on. After jumping out to a 14-6 lead, Indianapolis was locked down and finished Week 12 with only 10 first downs and a 5-for-13 day on third down conversions.
The Texans have had extra time to heal and scheme for Indy coming off a mini bye after beating the Bills last Thursday. Expect them to follow Kansas City’s blueprint and put the game in Daniel Jones’ hands.
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
Best bet: Carolina Panthers +10.5
(-110 at FanDuel)
Betting underdogs is often a “buy low/sell high” scenario, and that’s what presents itself in Carolina this week.
The Carolina Panthers laid an egg in primetime Monday, specifically the offense. A week after lighting up the box score, Bryce Young was all over the place, and the Carolina playbook was timid, with just six pass attempts of 15-plus yards.
The Los Angeles Rams, on the other hand, couldn’t have looked any better in a squash of Tampa Bay on Sunday night. Los Angeles jumped out to a quick lead, and with Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield leaving with a busted shoulder, L.A. was on cruise control in the second half.
Recency bias has bumped this Week 13 spread from a look-ahead line of Panthers +9.5 to an official opener of +10.5. Given we’re getting a half-point hook on the key number with the home side, I’ll bite on Carolina.
While the Panthers' offense looked blinded by the primetime lights in San Francisco, the defense held up for as long as it could despite playing almost 38 minutes and missing stud CB Jaycee Horn in the second half (concussion). Carolina scored three takeaways (two from Horn) and checked the 49ers to 2-of-6 success in the red zone.
After playing back-to-back road games and three of their last four away from home, Bank of America Stadium is a sight for sore eyes for the Panthers. They’ve been much more competitive in Carolina (-1.0 MoV) and get a real home-field edge in Week 13, with L.A. playing a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT) and possibly doing so in the rain.
This Panthers team is better than bookies think, and home dogs of +10.5 or more are 17-11 ATS (61%) since 2021.
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Detroit Lions
Best bet: Green Bay Packers +2.5
(-105 at FanDuel)
Just like sweet potatoes with the marshmallow fluff, the Green Bay Packers +3 got scooped up quickly. I’ll have to settle for the less delicious line of +2.5, but everything tastes better smothered in cheese.
And speaking of smothering cheese…
The Packers are getting increased pressure on rival passers and doing so with just a four-man rush. Green Bay sits Top 10 in QB hits and total sacks and takes on a Detroit Lions’ offensive line with injuries up and down the pass protection.
Detroit currently has four of five o-line starters listed as questionable and limited in practice during this short week. Most of those guys played through ailments in Week 12’s OT win over New York, but starting center Graham Glasgow still isn’t practicing yet.
Quarterback Jared Goff felt the effects of those o-line injuries. He was blasted by the Giants' pass rush, suffering three sacks and seven QB hits last Sunday.
Goff’s pass production gets a “turkey tryptophan” hit when facing pressure like the Packers’ four-man rush. He sits 58th among all QBs at PFF when under pressure, completing just 45.5% of his throws.
My NFL Underdogs column is 20-14-2 ATS this season for +3.79 units.
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