Patriots vs Jets Week 8 Picks and Predictions: New York Sheds Demons Against New England

The New York Jets will look to continue their strong start to the season on Sunday when they host the New England Patriots for an AFC East showdown.

At 5-2, New York has put itself in an early position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, the Pats have struggled to a 3-4 start and are dealing with a potential quarterback controversy.

Despite its record, NFL odds installed New England as slight favorites Sunday. Can N.Y. pull off another upset win? We’ll break down this matchup in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Patriots vs. Jets on October 30. 

Patriots vs Jets best odds

Patriots vs Jets picks and predictions

As ridiculous as it might sound, it’s about time we start taking the Jets seriously. Sure, New York hasn’t been beating up on the NFL’s best teams, but a four-game winning streak is still meaningful. The Jets have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs and seem to be building toward a more positive future.

Things aren’t looking quite so rosy for the Patriots. Last week, New England lost 33-14 to a Bears team that had previously struggled to generate any sustained offense this season. Worse still, the brewing quarterback controversy got a lot less exciting for Pats fans. 

After Bill Belichick pulled Mac Jones in his return from injury, Bailey Zappe provided an initial spark. But it didn’t last. Zappe threw two interceptions and just one touchdown, going 14-for-22 for 185 yards in the process. That’s not exactly an inspiring performance, even if it still represented an upgrade from Jones, who threw just six passes — including an interception — before leaving the game.

Jones will once again get the start in New York on Sunday. He’ll have to deal with a Jets' defense that has been solid this year, giving up just 19.6 points per game on the season. Perhaps most concerningly, New York has forced eight interceptions on the year, while Patriots quarterbacks have combined to throw nine picks, tied for the most in the league.

While fumbles are largely random, that level of carelessness in the passing game could be a real and persistent problem.

The Jets' offense hasn’t been explosive under Zach Wilson, but it has gotten the job done. In his four games, Wilson has led New York to 26.8 points per game, a notable improvement over the Joe Flacco era. That’s not because Wilson is doing anything spectacular through the air — he has thrown one touchdown pass — but he has done enough to support a run-first attack that should still be potent, even with the loss of Breece Hall.

It's easy to remain skeptical of the Jets, and nobody should rate them as an elite NFL team regardless of their record. On the other hand, the Patriots haven’t done anything as of late to show that they should be favored on Sunday, particularly with this game being in New York. The fact that Jones is reportedly starting this game doesn’t give me any more confidence in New England.

The Jets are a slight home underdog here, but I’m backing them to win this one outright. With New York getting under a field goal, taking the added value on the moneyline is worth more than the points, so I’m backing the Jets straight up on Sunday.

My best bet: Jets moneyline (+125 at PointsBet)

Patriots vs Jets spread analysis

The Patriots opened this game as a one-point favorite, and that line has steadily drifted upwards. New England now stands as a 2.5-point favorite at most books, a tempting spread as it stands just below the key number of three.

Yet as I pointed out in my best bet analysis, I think the Jets should win this game outright at home, which means I favor them on the spread as an underdog as well. Simply put, the Jets have performed better against at least slightly tougher competition. I don’t believe either New England quarterback is likely to accomplish much against the New York secondary, with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed Jr. presenting difficult matchups for opposing wide receivers. 

Yes, the Jets' offense will suffer with the loss of Hall, who was running for 5.8 yards per carry. New York made a move to deal with that injury, however, bringing in Jaguars running back James Robinson, who will share the running back load with Michael Carter and Ty Johnson. Robinson averaged 4.2 yards per carry and scored three times on the ground for Jacksonville, and should limit the loss of production in the Jets backfield.

The Jets have obviously outperformed expectations this year, and that has led to them going 5-2 against the spread on the season. Expect that trend to continue on Sunday, with another ATS and straight-up win for New York.

Patriots vs Jets Over/Under analysis

When books opened this game with a total of 42, that already put it on the lower side of this week’s NFL slate. Since then, the number has tumbled further, with the Over/Under now sitting at an anemic 39.5. 

As I’ve already discussed, there are offensive issues on both sides heading into Sunday’s game. The Patriots aren’t sure who they should start at quarterback, and it’s unclear if Jones or Zappe can provide consistent success. Meanwhile, the Jets are dealing with the loss of Hall, who has been their most productive offensive weapon this season.

Both teams have been capable on defense as well, even before factoring in the compromised offenses they’ll face this week. I’ve already talked up the Jets' defensive unit, but New England is solid as well, giving up just 20.9 points per game. Both offenses are mediocre at their best, and with injuries and questions piling up, we can expect them to underperform on Sunday.

All of that said, 39.5 is a very low number. I’m staying away from the total on this game, and to be honest, if forced to make a bet, I’d go with the Over. This total is simply too low to take the Under with two offenses that haven’t been completely incompetent, though the questions on both sides leave me with little confidence on the Over, either.

Patriots vs Jets betting trend to know

The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Jets.

Patriots vs Jets game info

Patriots vs Jets latest injuries

Patriots vs Jets weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Pages related to this topic