Football bettors rejoice!
The 2025 NFL schedule is here, and that means sportsbooks are releasing lookahead spreads and totals for every game on the calendar.
I comb through the first 11 weeks of NFL action, singling out the “must-watch, must-wager” contests while giving my early NFL picks and leans for these marquee matchups.
Early NFL picks for 2025
All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills prediction (-1.5, 51.5)
Over 51.5 (-110)
The first Sunday Night Football of the season is a barnburner and a potential AFC Championship pairing.
The Buffalo Bills got the best of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round last January, thanks in part to Mark Andrews’ infamous dropped 2-point conversion. The 27-25 win for Buffalo pushed with the closing total of 52 points.
This Week 1 number opened just shy of that Over/Under, without the intensity or deep film study of the postseason. With Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and a slew of talented weapons, I like the Over in this SNF showdown.
Week 2: Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs prediction (-1.5, 45.5)
Eagles +1.5 (-110)
We don’t have to wait long for a Super Bowl rematch, with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2.
Philadelphia demolished Kansas City in New Orleans back in February, and I’m not buying the “revenge” push from the Chiefs. Sure, they want to win this one, but it’s not worth squat to the point spread.
Philly has a scheduling edge in Week 2, having played at home on Thursday in Week 1, giving it a mini-bye to prep. Kansas City plays on the Friday in Week 1, but that game is in Brazil with travel and logistics making for a busy schedule.
Unless K.C.’s improved by leaps and bounds on the offensive line this offseason, the Eagles get the nod from me.
Week 3: Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens prediction (-3.5, 49.5)
Lions +3.5 (-105)
We’re going to see a lot of the same teams pop up in these “must see” matchups, and this Monday Night Football card in Week 3 is a potential Super Bowl preview.
The Detroit Lions have been one of the best road bets under coach Dan Campbell, boasting a 7-1 ATS record as visitors last year and owning a 25-10 ATS road record during his tenue in Motown.
I’ll snatch up the hook on the field goal in what will be a great primetime pairing.
Week 4: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs prediction (-1.5, 48.5)
Chiefs -1.5 (-108)
It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Ravens, who travel to Arrowhead on a short week after a Monday nighter with Detroit.
Kansas City will likely be coming off a shit-kicking of the Giants on SNF in Week 3, allowing them to rest starters and pull back the playbook before this huge AFC encounter with Baltimore.
The Chiefs have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, while covering the spread in three of those games.
Week 5: Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals prediction (+1.5, 50.5)
Over 50.5 (-110)
It’s a short week for the Cincinnati Bengals after playing at Denver in Week 4 and traveling for three of its first four games of the season. The Bengals are notorious for their slow starts, so this spread could be even bigger by game day.
The total intrigues me the most.
The 50.5-point number feels way too low considering the offenses on the field in Week 5. Joe Burrow has his big guns back and the Lions offense – while no longer under OC Ben Johnson – will still put up points.
Week 6: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs prediction (-3, 48.5)
Chiefs -3 (-105)
Holy hell. The Lions’ schedule is relentless, sending contender after contender at Detroit. We’ll know the impact of losing those top-tier coordinators by October.
Another Big Game preview is on deck in Week 6, when Campbell & Co. head to Arrowhead.
Kansas City is on a short week after a Monday night game at Jacksonville, laying a field goal in this SNF affair. I’m grabbing the Chiefs -3 now, thinking Detroit could stumble to start this insane sked.
We might be dealing with K.C. -3.5 or higher on gameday.
Week 9: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills prediction (-2.5, 48.5)
Bills -2.5 (-110)
Steal as much of your kids’ Halloween candy as you can and plunk down on the couch for the latest chapter of this AFC rivalry.
The Bills were able to beat the Chiefs in the regular season last year but once again came up short when it counted in the AFC Championship.
Not only does this game carry extra weight for Bills Mafia, but it will be the team’s lone home game in a span of 34 days. Give me Buffalo below the key number of a field goal.
Week 10: Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders prediction (-1.5, 49.5)
Over 49.5 (-115)
The Washington Commanders are currently short home favorites with oddsmakers expecting Jayden Daniels to avoid the sophomore slump and the Washington defense to thrive in Year 2 under Dan Quinn.
Hanging over this big one is a trip to Spain for the Commies the following week, which presents a lot of off-field distractions for players and staff.
These teams combined for 76 points when Washington beat Detroit in the NFC Divisional Round. I believe we’ll get more fireworks in Week 10.
Week 11: Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles prediction (-3.5, 47.5)
Under 47.5 (-110)
A bonkers 10-game, 11-week run for the Lions comes to close in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football.
During this span, Detroit will have faced seven foes who qualified for the postseason, including the defending champion Eagles.
Philadelphia doesn’t have an easy path either and will be on a short week after facing the Packers at Lambeau on MNF in Week 10.
Depending on how the first 10 weeks shake out, this game could be for the inside track to the top seed in the conference.
With possible playoff intensity and two defenses projected to rank Top 6, I’ll go Under 47.5 points.
Not intended for use in MA.
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