The second year of Mac Jones and the new-look Patriots get a tough test out of the gate, as New England heads to South Beach to face the Miami Dolphins.
With worrisome coaching and even worse talent at receiver, it's the Patriots' backfield that draws intrigue ahead of the new season. It's a different story for Miami, with Tyreek Hill's debut — and a fantastic 1-2 punch at receiver — eagerly awaited.
With Week 1 just around the corner, we look at the Patriots vs. Dolphins and bring you our best NFL player prop picks.
Patriots vs Dolphins prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patriots vs Dolphins Week 1 props
Dame falla'
There are a trio of factors at play in this pick: A fade on Damien Harris, a nod to Rhamondre Stevenson, and a cautious look at the game script.
Harris’s workload in this game, and moving forward, should be under intense scrutiny. He isn’t going to play on passing downs, with Stevenson and Ty Montgomery to fill that role, which will eat into his snaps. As far as early-down work, he could lose multiple, full series to Stevenson, as well.
An unsustainable scoring rate last year for Harris, who finished with 15 rushing scores, masked what was a pretty inefficient runner. Harris finished 19th in success rate, ranking alongside plodders like Antonio Gibson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Josh Jacobs. Not great!
By the same metric, Stevenson was third. Having already split the load last year, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see that split favor the sophomore Stevenson this year.
With Harris’s work to come on the ground, there’s the question of how many carries will be there for him on Sunday. The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite but have made a habit out of rendering the Pats uncompetitive in Miami. With Belichick relying on former head-coach rejects to run the offense — and a sophomore who overachieved as a rookie under center — it would not at all be surprising to see the Pats’ offense start slowly.
Against a talented Dolphins team, a slow start could put the Pats in a tough spot early and render Harris an afterthought.
Damien Harris Prop: Under 48.5 rushing yards (-115)
Friends forever
It’s bound to happen, when a team trades high-end draft capital for a player and then gives them top-of-the-market money, but Tyreek Hill’s role in Miami’s offense is being overstated — or, at least in comparison to that of Jaylen Waddle’s.
Put simply, it is surprising to see Hill’s receiving props set higher than Waddle’s, especially for Week 1.
On one hand, we have an explosive phenom in Hill who only broke the 100-catch mark last year, in year six. That was a result of an aDOT that dropped more than two yards and a yards per catch mark that fell by 2.5 yards. That player is set to make his debut with a new quarterback, in a new system, on a new team.
On the other hand, we have a receiver in Waddle who set NFL records for catches (104) and targets (140) by a rookie just last season, displaying an elite ability to separate and having it complemented by volume that aligns with the game’s elite receivers. And, now that Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers have been split up, he and Tua Tagovailoa may just have the NFL’s best connection dating back to their shared time at Alabama.
Hill is, at this stage of their careers, the better player, sure. However, it would be foolish to discount the foundation Waddle and Tagovailoa enter ‘22 with, and the evidence the former laid out last season — that he is a burgeoning target-volume monster.
Though Hill is a tricky receiver to directly fade — his big-play ability means he could top his yards in one play, while the chance for pop passes, screens, and quick-hitters could skew his receptions output — consider this the best of both worlds: Backing a receiver, in Waddle, who could realistically lead the NFL in catches this season, while fading a wideout in a brand-new situation.
Jaylen Waddle Prop: Over 5.5 catches (+110)
Odds to watch for: Rhamondre Stevenson receiving yards
After an encouraging rookie season, which followed a pre-draft process that saw him become a bit of an analytics darling, Rhamondre Stevenson is in line for an improved sophomore season. In addition to being a valuable early-down runner, Stevenson’s set to claim the passing-down role in the Patriots’ backfield as his own.
As if the runway wasn’t already clear for Stevenson to take off, any doubt has been put to rest since camp opened. James White retired, rookie fourth-round pick Pierre Strong failed to impress in preseason, and Ty Montgomery — the threat to Stevenson’s passing game workload — has only just returned to practice from a mysterious ankle injury.
Stevenson’s potential as a three-down stud may be halted by the presence of Harris and New England’s affinity for a committee backfield, but opportunities will be aplenty on passing downs. In a rare move for the NFL’s most prominent curmudgeon, Bill Belichick heaped praise upon the sophomore this week, complimenting his improvements as a pass catcher and in pass pro.
For a Patriots team poor on talent in skill positions, Stevenson can be an asset out of the backfield.
Last season saw Brandon Bolden, a long-time special teamer, record modest receiving numbers when charged with the passing-down role, averaging three catches and 30.3 yards in the 13 games in which he played more than 20% of snaps. Stevenson is a vastly superior player with a greater role to play within the offense.
In a game I expect New England to struggle and be playing from behind in, I am looking to hit on Stevenson's receiving yards prop — a safer play than receptions, after Stevenson averaged over 10 yards after the catch as a rookie — when it hits the board. I'll be playing the Over on a total of 30.5 or below.
