The Arizona Cardinals have fallen below .500 thanks to a three-game losing streak, but there’s still time for this team to make the postseason reality if it can find a win at home against the New England Patriots on Sunday.
There are certainly plenty of excuses for how the last few games have transpired, given their opponents, and my Patriots vs. Cardinals predictions on Sunday will highlight why this offense should have the breakout game it’s been searching for.
Read below for my free NFL picks for today's 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS.
Patriots vs Cardinals prediction
Who will win Patriots vs Cardinals?
You hate to play the narrative in a game like this, but the Cardinals are the team that will have everything to play for — clinging to an 8% chance of making the playoffs. A win here, and their odds grow to 11%. With a loss, they stand to have just a 2% chance of playing in the postseason.
Arizona is coming into this one looking for its first win in three games, but after facing a menacing defense in each game, it should get back to playing the ball we saw in the middle of the year against arguably the worst defense in football.
With New England’s pass rush failing to make an impact and the secondary open for business for Kyler Murray, Arizona should run it up here as it looks to close the season on a tear and begin with a statement win over the three-win Pats.
My best bet
Cardinals -6 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Sunday should offer some reprieve for the Arizona Cardinals, who have had to find a way through an excellent Seattle Seahawks defense twice in the last two weeks, with a game against the Minnesota Vikings’ Top-5 defense sandwiched in between.
The New England Patriots currently sit 29th in EPA per play, and while they’ve struggled mightily in just about every facet of the game, they certainly can’t feel good about entering this one ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass.
Arizona has shown a slight preference towards running the ball this year, but it does sit 11th in Success Rate when throwing and has been one of the best at both limiting sacks and completing passes.
That should help this Cardinals offense return to form, given they looked inspired when throwing the ball from Week 8 to Week 10 prior to running into the toughest part of their schedule, and to make life even easier, this Patriots defense has been down near the bottom of the league in sack rate.
The Cardinals’ pass defense has certainly grown to become something of a concern, with almost eight yards allowed per pass in the last three weeks, and while the matchup with Minnesota was a tough one in this regard, the same can’t really be said for the two games against Seattle.
New England doesn’t throw the ball well enough for this to be a grave concern, however. While this is technically the stronger area of its offense, it still sits in the bottom five of the league in DVOA.
The Cardinals may be just 1-3 against the spread as favorites this season. Still, I see a grand opportunity to back them on Sunday, with the market potentially reading too far into their three-game slide against quality competition.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have just two wins in their last 12 games, with numerous opportunities to rise above some bad opponents.
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Patriots vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Cardinals -6
Kyler Murray 250+ passing tards
Drake Maye Over 0.5 interceptions
I’m going to go for an alternate line on Kyler Murray’s passing yards, taking it up to 250 — a number he’s successfully hit in four straight contests.
New England hasn’t exactly been yielding a ton of passing attempts lately, but it also hasn’t encountered many teams in recent weeks that can throw the ball like Arizona.
This defense sits 31st in EPA allowed per dropback, and just two weeks ago, it allowed 308 yards on 29-of-40 passing against the Miami Dolphins.
The game script would ordinarily call for plenty of running in the second half, but I’m expecting the Cardinals to keep their foot on the gas and throw the ball late into this one as they look to rebuild their form offensively.
If the points keep coming for Arizona, Drake Maye should keep trying to press the issue through the air, and that should mean a sixth straight game with an interception.
Picks have been hard to come by for this secondary, but with the inexperienced Maye throwing the ball over 34 times per game in the last five weeks, he’s been liable for several turnovers, given the volume.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Patriots vs Cardinals odds
Patriots vs Cardinals live odds
Patriots vs Cardinals opening odds
- Spread: New England +6 (-110) | Arizona -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: New England (+200) | Arizona (-250)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-120) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Patriots vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line trickled all the way down to 4.5 points early in the week but bounced back to 5.5 in a matter of hours before hitting six points on Wednesday, where it’s remained.
- A heavy 68% of the spread bets and 73% of the money are on the Cardinals to cover.
- The total made two half-point moves towards the Over early in the week before settling at 46 on Tuesday.
- While just 30% of the tickets are on the Over, it’s accounted for 51% of the handle
Patriots vs Cardinals betting trend to know
The Cardinals have covered the spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+0.90 units / 4% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Cardinals.
Patriots vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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