Raymond James Stadium will play host to one of the most exciting games of Week 10, with the New England Patriots visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this afternoon.
My Patriots vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks are calling for Tampa Bay to cover the number with quarterback Baker Mayfield airing it out against New England.
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Patriots vs Buccaneers prediction
Patriots vs Buccaneers Best bet: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
A lot has been said about the easy schedule for the New England Patriots, but they did win the toughest test on their docket by topping the Buffalo Bills on the road in Week 5.
Still, I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this spot at home and coming off their Week 9 bye.
Tampa has a handful of statement wins on the ledger, and I’m expecting the extra week of rest and preparation to make the difference in this game.
Look for the Tampa Bay defense to show up and play New England quarterback Drake Maye tough. He’s been sacked six times in consecutive weeks, and the Pats' offensive line ranks 31st in pass block win rate for the year.
The New England defense is popping in most advanced metrics, but the Patriots also rank 25th in defensive DVOA — which accounts for strength of schedule — and below average in yards per play.
New England ranking 28th in pressure percentage and 23rd in pass rush win rate also has my attention because there is a notable gap in Tampa QB Baker Mayfield’s numbers when pressured and when throwing from a clean pocket.
Mayfield has thrown for 6.8 yards per attempt with a 53.4 completion percentage under pressure compared to respective 7.3 and 69.1% marks from a clean pocket, and his PFF passing grade jumps from a 20th-ranked 47.1 to a 13th-ranked 82.4.
As a result, I’m expecting Mayfield to have a solid day commanding the Tampa offense and putting enough points on the board to pull away from the Pats on Sunday.
Patriots vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
In addition to the noted question marks surrounding the New England defense, I’m not expecting the Pats to disappear offensively. New England ranks 10th in offensive DVOA, seventh in EPA per play, and seventh in points per game (26.3), after all.
Returning to Mayfield, he’s aired it out for an average of 259.3 passing yards per home game, and I’m anticipating him having the protection to pick apart the Pats.
Additionally, New England has faced a soft schedule of opposing quarterbacks outside of Bills star Josh Allen, so their numbers don’t exactly jump off the page. The Pats have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt to opposing QBs while ranking 28th in pass defense DVOA, after all.
Patriots vs Buccaneers SGP
- Buccaneers -2.5
- Over 48.5
- Baker Mayfield Over 244.5 passing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Tucker TD is tempting
Bucs running back Sean Tucker has scored in two of the past three games and handled four red-zone carries last week, including three inside the five-yard line.
Patriots vs Buccaneers SGP
- Buccaneers -2.5
- Over 48.5
- Baker Mayfield Over 244.5 passing yards
- Sean Tucker anytime touchdown
Patriots vs Buccaneers game predictions
Patriots vs Buccaneers moneyline prediction
Pair the soft schedule with the questions on defense, and I’m expecting the Pats to have their hands full with the Bucs. Tampa is coming off its bye week, and as noted, I expect the extra rest and preparation time to be the difference Sunday.
Patriots vs Buccaneers spread prediction
Obviously, I’m on the Buccaneers this week, so I’d like to use this space to highlight that the Patriots are a solid teaser candidate. A six-point tease moves the Pats all the way up to +8.5 and through multiple key numbers.
Patriots vs Buccaneers Over/Under prediction
As noted, the Pats have trended to the Over, and I’m anticipating the Bucs putting plenty of points on the board against a potentially fraudulent New England defense.
Patriots vs Buccaneers odds
- Spread: Patriots +2.5 | Buccaneers -2.5
- Moneyline: Patriots +122 | Buccaneers -138
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Patriots vs Buccaneers trend to know
The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 21 games for +4.15 units and an 18% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Patriots vs Buccaneers
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Sunday, November 9, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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