Week 8 sees the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.
Pittsburgh is led by Aaron Rodgers, who was a 10-time Pro-Bowler with the Packers before an unceremonious exit from Green Bay following the 2022 season.
This is the first time that the legendary quarterback will play against his former team, and my Packers vs. Steelers player props expect him to have a productive game.
Here are my favorite NFL picks for Sunday, October 26.
Packers vs Steelers SNF props
| Player | Pick | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 219.5 passing yards | -114 | |
| Over 52.5 receiving yards | -114 | |
| Under 56.5 rush yards | -114 |
Aaron Rodgers Over 219.5 passing yards (-114)
Aaron Rodgers isn't the All-Pro quarterback that he used to be when he dominated the NFL with the Green Bay Packers. However, he's still a capable passer who is getting more comfortable in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense.
Rodgers completed 81.8% of his passes for 200 yards against the Vikings' stingy pass defense in Week 4. He then came off the bye to throw for 235 yards versus Cleveland before throwing for 249 yards and four touchdowns in his last outing.
After taking seven sacks in the first two weeks, Rodgers has been sacked just twice in his last four games. Is he getting better protection from his line? No, but he is getting rid of the ball quickly, which will help him against this Packers pass rush.
Green Bay's pass defense has regressed after an incredible start to the season. In their last three games, the Packers allowed 279 passing yards to Jacoby Brissett, 219 yards to Joe Flacco, and 319 yards to Dak Prescott — who didn't have All-Pro wideout CeeDee Lamb.
Romeo Doubs Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114)
Injuries have decimated the Green Bay receiving corps. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are sidelined, with Matthew Golden and Christian Watson questionable for Sunday. That could make Romeo Doubs the No. 1 WR for Jordan Love.
Doubs has seen at least eight targets in each of the last three games, logging 55+ receiving yards in each of those contests. He's coming off a season-high 72-yard performance against Arizona and is poised for a big game against a vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary.
The Steelers are 21st in the league in defensive dropback EPA while allowing a league-high 184.7 receiving yards per game against wide receivers.
Pittsburgh plays man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the league, and Doubs has the 18th-best receiving grade (79.1) against man coverage per PFF, posting a 26.7% target rate.
Jaylen Warren Under 56.5 rushing yards (-114)
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren exploded for 127 yards on 16 carries last week, but this is a sell-high spot for his stock. Keep in mind that he faced Cincinnati's brutal run defense last week and piled up a whopping 63 rush yards over expected.
Warren will have a much tougher time breaking tackles against a Green Bay stop unit that is stout against the run. The Packers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (76.5) while ranking fourth in yards allowed per carry (3.5).
Prior to last week, Warren had rushed for 52 yards or fewer in all four of his games this season. He averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in those four contests, posting -3 rush yards over expected.
Warren has been most effective on outside zone runs, but Green Bay allows a league-low 2.4 yards per rush on those plays.
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Packers vs Steelers SNF prop betting card
- Rodgers o219.5 passing yards (-114)
- Doubs o52.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Warren u56.5 rushing yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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