Packers vs Lions Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Green Bay Gets Caught Slipping

The Packers are reeling, and what might look like a soft schedule pot might not be as forgiving as Green Bay hopes. See why the underdog Lions are very live with our NFL betting picks.

Nov 6, 2022 • 08:13 ET • 4 min read

The Green Bay Packers (3-5) are now losers of four straight and have their backs against the wall — a loss this week would arguably put them out of playoff contention. Aaron Rodgers & Co. will hit the road for the third consecutive week in an effort to turn the season around.

Meeting them in Week 9 are the Detroit Lions (1-6), who despite their league-worst record are always feisty — having lost to the likes of the Eagles, Vikings, and Dolphins by a combined 11 points.

Can Dan Campbell rally his troops? Find out with our Packers vs. Lions NFL picks and predictions for Sunday, November 6.

Packers vs Lions best odds

Packers vs Lions picks and predictions

Just a month ago, things were seemingly going well in Green Bay. After three straight wins to get to 3-1 and with the Giants, Jets, and Commanders next on their schedule, it seemed as if the Packers were in good position to put together their fourth straight 13+ win season.

And after going up 20-10 in their Week 5 London game against the Giants, there was seemingly nothing to be worried about. Since then, however, the Packers offense has put up a measly 43 points in 3.5 games — good for a 12.3 points-per-game average. Unsurprisingly, the Packers have managed to lose all four games during that stretch.

And when examining the schedule before the season began, this Week 9 matchup with the Lions was likely never viewed as a much-needed "get right" spot for Green Bay, yet that is exactly where they stand. But given their recent form and Dan Campbell's track record of getting his players to play up to their competition, the Packers are just 3.5-point favorites against the 1-6 Lions heading into Sunday.

The Packers simply lack a week-in-week-out reliable option at wide receiver, and it has really hamstrung the offense. Longtime vet Randall Cobb is out, 34th overall pick Christian Watson suffered a concussion early in the first quarter last week in his first game back, and Sammy Watkins is a non-factor between dismal production and his injury proneness.

That left fourth-round rookie Romeo Doubs, seventh-round rookie Samori Toure, and Amari Rodgers (arguably the most loathed man in all of Wisconsin) as the core wide receiver group last week in Buffalo. And while Doubs leads the team in receiving and reeled in a truly spectacular touchdown last week, and with Toure adding a score in his first game of real action, it goes without saying that the trio is hardly enough.

To be quite frank, there’s a good argument that the Packers shouldn't be favored for this game given how close these offenses are.

Green Bay Detroit
Offense DVOA 8th 10th
Pass offense DVOA 12th 16th
Rush offense DVOA 8th 7th
Points per drive  26th 9th
Drive success rate 19th  9th

Granted, Detroit's defense is one of the league's worst, ranking 32nd in defensive DVOA and pass defense DVOA and 30th in rush defense DVOA. Aaron Jones is someone worth taking a look at in NFL player props, but outside of him, if there's one offense in the NFL currently that would be most likely to not capitalize on this favorable matchup, it would certainly be the Packers.

Take the +3.5 at home.

My best bet: Detroit Lions +3.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

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Packers vs Lions spread analysis

This all goes without saying that the Packers' special teams unit is a liability every week to lose the game outright. Amari Rodgers is arguably the league's worst punt returner and has four fumbles this year already — losing all but one.

Punter Pat O'Donnell has had a rough time making the most of his opportunities, facing pressure 23.5% of the time (the highest mark in the last five seasons) which has cratered his average hang time to a league-low 4.11 seconds (source).

And the Lions find themselves in a favorable betting position as a home underdog of 3.5. This season, home underdogs of a field goal or more are 19-10-1 (65.5%) against the spread for +4.8 units.

Packers vs Lions Over/Under analysis

The total of 49.5 for this Week 9 matchup is tied for the highest mark on the entire board. And given both teams’ defensive shortcomings this year, that number certainly makes sense.

However, divisional games tend to be more of a grind. For example, the two divisional games the Packers have played this year played to totals of 30 and 37. On the other hand, their six non-divisional games have played to an average of 41.8 points.

With Amon-Ra St. Brown being the Lions' lone offensive bright spot while D'Andre Swift slowly ramps up in his return from his injury, and with TJ Hockenson being shipped away this week, there isn't much on the Lions side to suggest a massive scoring output.

For the Packers, Aaron Jones continues to be the team's best offensive player, but him being fed generously will only prolong drives and eat up the clock.

Packers vs Lions betting trend to know

Home underdogs of a field goal or more are 19-10-1 (65.5%) against the spread this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Lions.

Packers vs Lions game info

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Date: Sunday, November 6, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Lions +3.5, 49

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