Welcome to "Gimme The Over!", where I lay out the best Over/Under NFL picks on the board each week!
I’ll break down my favorite spots, from full-game and team totals to quarters and halves, using statistics, trends, and occasionally instincts to identify the strongest opportunities.
Overs get top billing, but my picks will occasionally feature “Don’t Gimme The Over!” selections when an Under is too good to ignore.
NFL Over/Under picks for Week 1
| Matchup | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Saints vs  Lions |
Lions TT o28.5 | 52% |
 Dolphinsvs  Raiders |
Under 40.5 | 52% |
 Cowboysvs  Giants |
1H Over 24.5 | 44% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 1 NFL Over/Under picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
Saints vs Lions: Lions team total Over 28.5
The Detroit Lions' offense has been an absolute buzzsaw at home, averaging an NFL-best 32.5 points last season and 34.9 in 2024.
The New Orleans Saints have sleeper buzz, but their secondary sits near the bottom of multiple preseason rankings, and Cam Jordan’s absence leaves another hole.
We also need to note that this Saints D got absolutely lit up the few times it visited high-quality offenses last season, with the Seahawks, Bills, and Rams all scoring 31+ points against it.
FWIW, in their home opener last season, Detroit dropped a season-high 52 on the Bears. Dan Campbell should have this offense ready to bite off some kneecaps after a disappointing 2025.
Dolphins vs Raiders: Over 40.5 - No!
DON’T GIMME THE OVER ON THIS ONE.
May God have mercy on the soul of anyone forced to start these pass-catchers in fantasy.
With Brock Bowers set to miss the opener, Ashton Jeanty and De’Von Achane are the only reliable weapons left. Expect plenty of handoffs, keeping the clock moving and sparing everyone unnecessary exposure to the passing “attacks.”
Much has been made of the Miami Dolphins' glorified practice squad on offense, but don’t forget: the Las Vegas Raiders are still the Raiders. They’re starting Kirk Cousins, a quarterback the Falcons couldn’t wait to drive to the airport.
Give me running plays, punts, field-goal attempts, and the patience to watch this Under play out.
Cowboys vs Giants: 1H Over 24.5
Why wait until the end of the game to start sweating? The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants have all the ingredients for an early scoring spree.
Cowboys and Giants games combined to go 26–8 to the first-half Over last season. Dallas had the NFL’s worst third-down defense, while New York struggled to get stops in the red zone. One couldn’t get off the field, while the other couldn’t keep opponents out of the end zone.
That’s a lovely arrangement for our purposes. With this offensive talent and that track record, 25 points before halftime is hardly a deranged request.
Week 1 Over/Under combo
Lions team total Over 28.5
Dolphins/Raiders Under 40.5
Cowboys/Giants 1H Over 24.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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