Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 7: Lockett In Line to Burn Cardinals

Latavius Murray 50-plus rushing yards

I’m high on Latavius Murray odds this week. I’ve already hit him for a good plus-money TD and think the Buffalo running back continues to carve out a role in this offense with Damien Harris out. 

Last week, he had 12 carries for 45 yards and started the game. He saw critical snaps and had just two fewer carries than James Cook. He’s seen just one target over the last two games, which is fine here because I’m just looking for 50-plus rushing yards at +450.

This prop checks a lot of boxes. The Bills are a big favorite, so the game script should be in the bet’s favor. The passing conditions won’t be great thanks to heavy winds and possible rain. The New England offense is wretched and the Bills should dominate time of possession. 

Finally, the Patriots are dealing with a ton of injuries, especially on defense, where four starters are questionable and the secondary is gutted. If Allen burns these DBs, big lanes could open up in the running game.

Fifty yards is not a lot for a player who could easily get double-digit carries and play half of the RB snaps. If he sees close-out carries, bettors could be angry they didn’t ladder this to 75 (+1,600).

It’s one unit at 50-plus (+450) and 0.2 units on 75+ at +1,600.

Latavius Murray prop: 50-plus rushing yards (+450 at bet365) 

Tyler Lockett 100-plus receiving yards

Last week I targeted Cooper Kupp vs. the Cardinals for some good plus money, and this week I’m going back to the well. The Seahawks receivers will face an Arizona pass defense allowing 200 yards per game to opposing wide receivers. 

Seattle managed just 13 points last week, but that had more to do with the execution near the goal line than between the 20s as Geno Smith threw for 326 yards. 

DK Metcalf is dealing with a rib/hip injury and is questionable heading into the game which could open up more routes and targets for rookie Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who is coming off his best professional game, and Tyler Lockett 

Smith-Njigba four of five for 47 yards but also played as many snaps as Lockett and Metcalf. His role in the offense is growing but sadly because of Metcalf’s injury designation, his milestone props are off the board. He had a receiving total of 38.5 so if it reopens at that number his 50-plus yards will be in the +180 range which would be a play.

However, the more probable path to cashing lies in Tyler Lockett odds. He is the healthiest, has a team-leading 22% target share, and could hit the century mark after a 94-yard outing last week vs. a much better defense in the Bengals. 

Lockett is paying a solid +525 to hit 100 yards which is something Kupp (148 yards), Ja’Marr Chase (192 yards), and Brandon Aiyuk (148 yards) have done in consecutive weeks vs. Arizona. Michael Gallup had 92 yards and Jalin Hyaat had 89 yards as well in Weeks 2 and 3 vs. this defense. 

With six members of this Arizona secondary out or on the IR, this is a great place to target Seattle receivers’ milestones. If Metcalf sits or is limited, this number will be long gone. It’s a one-unit play. 

Tyler Lockett prop: Tyler Lockett 100-plus receiving yards (+525 at bet365)

AJ Brown 125-plus receiving yards

AJ Brown odds look good here, as he's topped 125 yards in four straight games. He plays Sunday night in a likely shootout that has the week’s largest total. He’s also paying +390 to hit that 125-yard mark again in a date vs. Miami corners Eli Apple and Xavien Howard. 

Pro Football Focus has both corners ranked outside the Top 85 at the position (out of 116) and combined, the duo has allowed 45 catches on 67 targets (67% completion rate). 

Both corners have consistently ranked as poor coverage defenders and good offenses have had their way with this defense. Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs went for nearly 125 yards on six catches and three scores back in Week 3. Hell, Adam Thielen went 11/115/1 vs. this secondary last week. 

Brown is one of eight WRs getting a 30% target share and the Eagles offense has a great matchup vs. this secondary. For something the receiver has done in four straight weeks, +390 seems awfully long. It’s one unit for me. 

AJ Brown prop: 125-plus receiving yards (+390 at bet365)