Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 10: Henry Shines For New England

50-plus receiving yards

The New England Patriots will be thin at receiver once again this week in Germany, and that means that tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki will be on the field a ton vs. an Indy defense that is average at defending the position. 

With DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne both out last week, the Pats ran 12 personnel at 84% and both TEs had matching 84% route shares. With an indoor setting and coming off a game where he tied for the team lead in targets with seven, backing Henry to hit the 50-yard mark at +320 is the best milestone in the early game.

Henry finished with a 4/39/1 line last week vs. the Commanders and should see a similar role Sunday morning vs. the generous pass defense of the Indianapolis Colts. The veteran TE hit the 50-yard mark in three of his first four games to open the season and has a chance to get back there for the first time since Week 4. 

Of all the healthy pass-catchers, Henry has the largest target share of the group on the season. The offense has failed to score more than 17 points in seven of its last eight games, and getting the TE involved today vs. a weak defense is hopefully a priority for an offense that can’t run the ball. 

This projects as one of the fastest-paced games of Week 10 and bettors should see plenty of plays on both sides. Hunter doesn’t need garbage time to hit this but any extra work in trail-mode will certainly help. THE BLITZ is projecting 43 yards here.

Hunter Henry prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+320 at bet365)

50-plus receiving yards

Following a slow start to the season where the San Fransico 49ers TE had under 150 yards receiving over the first four games, George Kittle turned things on before the bye, posting a 78-yard performance in Week 7 and a 148-yard game in Week 8.

Kittle has topped 75 receiving yards in four of his last six games and although his dud games have been awful (I’m talking a pair of sub-10-yard games), the ceiling is too high to ignore. It's tough to not hit his milestone markets in a Week 10 game that could see plenty of scoring and passing.

Kittle is paying +165 for 50 yards and +525 for 75-plus yards. I’m playing a full unit on the 50-plus and adding another half unit on the 75+. The Jacksonville Jaguars have become one of the best run defenses in football and could be missing both their starting corner Tyson Campbell and safety Andre Cisco. 

While the 49ers will also have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk back, Kittle can still hit these marks on efficiency with his solid YAC numbers. THE BLITZ is projecting 54.7 yards, making his 50-plus milestone better than a 50% win probability. 

George Kittle prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+165 at bet365)

50-plus receiving yards

New Orleans Saints wideout Rashid Shaheed has an elite matchup this week vs. a heavy blitzing Minnesota Vikings defense that has corners who have had a tough time catching up with explosive WRs. 

While Shaheed's output has been frustrating with five games of under 35 receiving yards, when he gets behind the defense, he can explode. See no further than his three games of 75+ yards, including a 153-yard effort on three catches two weeks ago. 

Very few receivers have the skillset to top a 50-yard Milestone on one play, but Shaheed can do it — especially vs. a weak secondary that won’t have the luxury of blanketing him thanks to their league-high 51% blitz percentage.

It’s a one-unit play at 50-plus yards at +220 and another half-unit on his 75-plus yards at +650.

Rashid Shaheed prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+220 at bet365)