The Sunday NFL slate kicks off early on Sunday morning from London when the Minnesota Vikings take on the Cleveland Browns.
Minnesota lost a nail-biter to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Dublin last week, and the Cleveland Browns got their first win of the season on a game-winning field goal against the Green Bay Packers.
Here are my best NFL picks for Vikings vs. Browns on Sunday, October 5, highlighting Justin Jefferson's odds, who will look to find the endzone for the first time since Week 1.
Justin Jefferson prop pick
Justin Jefferson best bet: Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+160)
Justin Jefferson is enjoying a productive start to the season, racking up 22 catches for 326 yards and a score through four weeks. He’s seen more volume in two games with Carson Wentz under center, posting a 15/201 line on 18 targets compared to a 7/123 line on 13 targets in two games with J.J. McCarthy.
With Wentz back under center this week, I’m expecting plenty of looks for Minnesota’s star wideout.
The Cleveland Browns' defense is no joke. The Browns have held opponents to the fewest rushing yards per game at a paltry 70.3. They’ve been nearly as stingy against the pass, surrendering just 152.3 yards per game through the air - good for fourth-fewest.
Though Cleveland’s defense hasn’t allowed many yards, the team has been vulnerable in the scoring department. The Browns have allowed just two rushing touchdowns through four games, but they’ve surrendered eight passing touchdowns.
Jefferson’s target volume and production have led to only one touchdown, but the Vikings will need to lean heavily on the passing game this week against a strong Browns run defense.
Justin Jefferson same-game parlay
Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown
Dillon Gabriel Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
Quinshon Judkins Over 93.5 rushing + receiving yards
Dillon Gabriel will make his first NFL start on Sunday, becoming the first player to do so on the international stage. The all-time touchdown-scoring leader in NCAA history should be able to connect with one of his receivers on at least one strike to the endzone, even against a tough Minnesota defense.
With a rookie QB under center, I expect Cleveland’s offense to lean on Quinshon Judkins in Week 5. Since Week 2, his touches have gone from 13 to 19 to 25, and his total yards have risen from 71 to 95 to 115 in that span. He should have no problem cracking 94 total yards as a focal point of the Brown’s offense.
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