The AFC West looks wide open this year, with the Kansas City Chiefs off to a 0-2 start, and that means even more urgency for Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers to seize the moment in their MNF clash with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Herbert led L.A. to a statement win over Kansas City in Brazil in Week 1, capped off by a late, game-sealing scramble, and early signs suggest this could be the season where he reaches the next level in the QB pyramid.
There are plenty of Justin Herbert odds to weigh up for this September 15 battle, and my top NFL picks see the running game taking some of the strain off their gunslinger’s shoulders in our Chargers vs. Raiders predictions.
Justin Herbert prop pick
Justin Herbert best bet: Under 255.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Justin Herbert threw the ball 34 times for 318 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 to pull off the upset against the Kansas City Chiefs – and yet, that doesn’t quite feel like the game script we'll consistently see from Jim Harbaugh’s team.
This Los Angeles Chargers squad is set up to establish the run and was just outside the Top 10 in rushing attempts last year. In the season opener, L.A. couldn’t get much going on the ground – just 90 rushing yards on 25 carries – but I expect Harbaugh to go back to the well, limiting how often Herbert has to put on his cape in the passing game.
That makes the Under on Herbert’s passing yards O/U an attractive play as he goes on the road to take on a Las Vegas Raiders defense that only gave up 13 points in Week 1.
He fell short of this number in 11 of his 18 contests last season, and the Chargers will surely be wary of too many dropbacks for their franchise quarterback when Las Vegas’ Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce are prowling.
Instead, look for Omarion Hampton and the L.A. backfield to keep the chains moving, allowing Herbert to be more selective with his reads at the line of scrimmage – just as he was against the Raiders last September when he finished with 144 passing yards.
Justin Herbert same-game parlay
Justin Herbert Under 255.5 passing yards
Omarion Hampton Over 56.5 rushing yards
Ashton Jeanty anytime touchdown
Hampton got the lion’s share of the carries against the Chiefs in Week 1, with 15 rushes for 48 yards, and there’s a path to even more touches here. While the Raiders know what to expect from Herbert based on prior matchups, Hampton brings more mystery in his rookie year, and I see him nailing this Over.
Fellow first-year running back Ashton Jeanty is also poised for a big night. He marked his NFL debut with a touchdown last weekend against the New England Patriots, and he should be the No.1 option around the goal-line for Las Vegas, especially if Brock Bowers is ruled out or limited. Mark him down for an anytime score.
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