The New England Patriots return home as -7.5 favorites, and they're looking to secure their third consecutive victory while hosting the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
With both AFC East rivals showcasing stout defensive units capable of locking down opposing playmakers, my top Jets vs. Patriots predictions are locking in on a low-scoring affair.
Here are my best bets and NFL picks for today.
TOP Pick
Jets vs Patriots prediction today: Under 43.5
The New York Jets may be better than their 2-3 record suggests, but only because of their defense. The Jets offense averages 5.1 yards per play, 22nd in the NFL, and ranks 28th in scoring at 18.6 ppg.
The New England Patriots have turned the ball over on offense over the last two weeks, but they aren't as good as the 37.0 ppg they've averaged in that span, and they aren't as bad as the 12.0 ppg they put up before that.
The New York defense is top three in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.9) and yards allowed per passing attempt (5.5), which should tamp down on Drake Maye's outstanding numbers over the past two weeks.
I'm backing the Under to 42.5 points.
COVERS INTEL: The Jets offense ranks 19th with -0.07 EPA per play, and won't trouble a Patriots defense that allows just 296.2 yards per game.
Jets vs Patriots combo
I'm not expecting many points in this game, and on its face, that makes me suspicious of a spread of more than a touchdown.
Even in the Jets' three losses this year, they've only lost by more than one score once in a 23-12 defeat to the Chicago Bears. I'm taking New York to cover.
One area where the Patriots might consistently succeed is the running game, where the Jets allow 4.2 yards per rush.
Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off a 64-yard performance against the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and I see him hitting the 60+ yard target on the ground again on Sunday.
Jets vs Patriots combo
- Under 43.5
- Jets +7.5
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 62.5 rushing yards
Jets vs Patriots touchdown scorer: Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry has had his two most productive games of the year over the past two weeks. He caught 8 passes for 106 yards and scored a touchdown last Sunday against the Raiders.
The Jets haven't allowed a tight end touchdown yet this year, but have given up 22 catches for 183 yards to the group. New England won't spring many explosive plays against New York's secondary, and Henry will get plenty of red-zone targets.
I like Henry to score a touchdown at 36% or lower.
- Top picks: 3-1, +1.66 units
- Combos: 0-4, -4.00 units
Jets vs Patriots odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Jets +7.5 | Patriots -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (50%) | Under 43.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Jets 25% | Patriots 75%
Jets vs Patriots player prop: Drake Maye 225+ passing yards
Drake Maye has found his groove over the past two weeks, throwing for 643 yards and seven touchdowns in the pair of games. This follows 13 regular-season games in which he threw for 225+ yards.
The Jets will keep Maye from scoring at will, but they aren't incredible against the pass, ranking 12th in EPA per passing attempt (-0.06). This total is extremely manageable, especially in what should be a close game that keeps Maye passing into the fourth quarter.
I like Maye to get to 225+ passing yards at 60% or lower.
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Jets vs Patriots weather
The forecast calls for a cool, clear day in Foxborough, so weather shouldn't be a factor in this game.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Jets vs Patriots trend to know
The Under is 6-2 in the last eight matchups between the Jets and Patriots. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Patriots.
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How to watch Jets vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Jets vs Patriots latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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