The Detroit Lions look to keep pace in the NFC North when they host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.
Week 9 brings Jared Goff odds that give us a great opportunity to cash a player prop on just one play, as he’ll face a Vikings defense that blitzes more than any team in the league.
Here are my latest NFL picks for Sunday, November 2.
Jared Goff prop pick
Jared Goff best bet: Over 0.5 rushing yards (+112 at FanDuel)
There’s a lot of focus on Jared Goff’s passing props against the Minnesota Vikings, and rightly so. The Vikings are among the Top 10 defenses in the NFL in passing yards allowed, but rank near the bottom of the league in QBR against, yards allowed per completion, and completion percentage.
Part of Minnesota’s success has come from getting to the quarterback. The Vikings rank 13th with 2.6 sacks per contest, despite a PFF pass-rush grade that is just 19th. That is a byproduct of an NFL-leading blitz rate of 42%.
The other area where the Vikings are getting hurt is when quarterbacks take off, and oddly, it’s the ones you wouldn’t expect who have found success.
The Vikings held Jalen Hurts to negative yards on four carries, while Michael Penix Jr lost a yard on one carry. Meanwhile, Jake Browning, Aaron Rodgers, and Dillon Gabriel all picked up a few yards on scrambles.
That’s why I love getting plus-odds on Goff to simply get a yard on the ground. He doesn’t run often, but he’s rushed for seven yards in each of his last two games against the Buccaneers and Chiefs. And like Minnesota, both those teams rank near the top of the NFL in blitz rate.
Not counting kneel-downs, Goff has gained at least six yards in the four games he’s taken off for the Detroit Lions. The Vikings don’t control their rush lanes well, and that will open things up for Goff to get us the one yard we need.
Jared Goff same-game parlay
Jared Goff Over 0.5 rushing yards
Jared Goff Over 240.5 passing yards
David Montgomery Over 10.5 receiving yards
Goff is one of the rare quarterbacks who thrives when he feels the heat. His completion rate is actually slightly higher (75% vs 74.8%) when blitzed this season, and he’s averaging 1.7 yards more per attempt against the blitz.
He’s only topped 240 yards three times this season, but this is a great spot for Goff to do so. His ability to find the open man against the blitz, especially if that open man is Amon-Ra St. Brown, will lead to big chunk plays.
It’s no coincidence then that David Montgomery had his two biggest receiving days of the season in the last two games. He caught just two passes in each game, but went for 37 yards against Kansas City while picking up 18 against Tampa Bay.
Look for Montgomery to be utilized in the screen game against an attack-minded Minnesota defense, as he easily clears the low receiving total.
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