We’ve got an AFC South clash on Sunday with the Houston Texans welcoming the Jacksonville Jaguars to the NRG Stadium. This game is a really strange one, in part down to the Jaguars’ playoff situation and the Texans’ potential tank.
So, who will earn taunting rights in this divisional matchup? Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans and find out.
Jaguars vs Texans best odds
Jaguars vs Texans picks and predictions
Coming into this game on a three-game win streak, this Jaguars team is the best in the division on current form. If we’re honest, the Jags are an okay team in a very bad division, but there are real indicators that this team could become something.
Since Week 9 they’ve been impressive, with Trevor Lawrence, in particular, starting to deliver everything we thought he would when he was drafted first overall.
This is the Lawrence we saw at Clemson. He’s leading this team and, more crucially, he’s making some clutch throws. As he begins to realize his potential, he’s starting to become somebody that teams are really worrying about.
They can be superior to the Jags for three quarters but Lawrence is still capable of getting them over the line. If he continues that then they’ll be feared in the playoffs and he’s on the fast track to becoming one of the NFL’s best QBs.
In the past seven games, he’s had 16 touchdowns, 14 of which were passing and two with his feet, and a passer rating of 108.2, which is the highest in the league in that period. This is a player at the peak of his powers and he’s been averaging two passing touchdowns per game.
We know the Texans’ defense is bad at stopping the run but despite the threat of the ground game, I’d still expect to see Lawrence cut them apart here.
My best bet: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
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Jaguars vs Texans spread analysis
We’ve seen the line move by two points since opening, with the Jaguars initially five-point favorites but that’s dropped to three. The Jaguars are the better team, as their record would suggest, but they share the exact same 7-7-1 record ATS.
The Jaguars have only covered in three games on the road and failed to cover four times. Meanwhile, the Texans have covered in three at home and failed four times. Things are pretty similar here.
Realistically, the Jaguars should win this one. In the past couple of months, we’ve seen Lawrence emerge as a genuinely top quarterback and despite the offense lacking great receiving talent, as evidenced by Zay Jones being a big part of it, they are a team to be feared.
The Texans beat the Titans last week, which shows that they’re still hungry to win, but perhaps more impressive are the narrow losses to the Cowboys and Chiefs, in which the Texans have managed to hang with the far superior team.
The Jaguars are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five against AFC opponents and I’d lean towards them but you can’t rule out this Texans team.
Jaguars vs Texans Over/Under analysis
The total points line sits at 43.5 points and has only dropped half a point from 44 since opening. I don’t feel totally confident in backing either side of this but if I were forced to pick then I’d take the Under. The Under is 10-4 in the Jags’ past 14 games when they’ve met teams with losing records.
In the past five meetings of these two teams in Houston, we’ve seen the Under cash in four of them.
Then there’s the Texans. The Under is 5-2 in their past seven games overall, it’s 4-1 in their last five against AFC teams, and 4-0 in their past four against teams within the division.
Everything is pointing us towards backing the Under and I’d oblige.
Jaguars vs Texans betting trend to know
The Jaguars are 4-0-1 ATS in their previous five games against AFC opponents. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Texans.
Jaguars vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Texans +5.5, O/U 40 |
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