NFL First Touchdown Scorer Props for Wild Card: Kupp Strikes First for Rams

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst 10+ years betting experience
Updated: Jan 12, 2024 , 03:36 PM ET • 4 min read

Cooper Kupp's had an understated season with Puka Nacua's arrival, just one of several reasons why our NFL first touchdown scorer picks are backing his value to draw first blood when the Rams and Lions meet in Wild Card Weekend.

Wild Card odds are live, which means six thrilling sudden-death games — you lose, and you’re going home. We’re going to see teams battling with all their heart to reach the Divisional Round. As bettors we’re going to try and work out who is going to score first in some of these games and find value in the NFL odds.

We’re studying the First Touchdown Scorer markets to find three players who offer the perfect mix of value and opportunity to deliver some healthy returns.

Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Wild Card Weekend’s first touchdown scorers.

You can also check out our Wild Card Touchdown Props for the best anytime TD bets! 

Wild Card first touchdown scorer props

Picks made on January 12 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Best Wild Card first TD scorer props

Prop bet #1: Travis barks

The Chiefs rested their key starters in Week 18, something that I think was really needed. They’d really lost their mojo, and an extra week of rest will surely do the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce good, as it will Andy Reid, who has had more time to try and fix his faltering offense.

Going into this game against the Dolphins, I’m high on the Chiefs’ chances, in part due to the weather and also because of how well they locked down the Dolphins when they met in Germany earlier in the season.

So, I need to pick a Chiefs player to score first, in my mind that means I have to take Travis Kelce odds, even with the future Hall-of-Famer having a poor year by his standards. We’ve seen the Dolphins give up seven touchdowns to TEs this season, a number only beaten by five other teams. With two weeks to get right for this game, I’m expecting Kelce to come up clutch, as he’s done his whole career. If he scores on Saturday, it’ll be his seventh straight playoff game with a touchdown. When this offense hits pressure situations, they always look for 87. He’ll be the man to score first at Arrowhead on Saturday.

Travis Kelce prop: First touchdown (+550 at 888sport)

Prop bet #2: No silencing this Lamb

For my second pick I’m taking another team favorite, and I’m certainly not going against the grain here, but I simply have to back CeeDee Lamb odds to get the first touchdown at Jerry World. Firstly, with the Cowboys being the second-biggest favorites of the weekend, it makes sense to make one of their stars to score first.

That star has to be Lamb because of the incredible season that he’s had. Despite scoring once in their first six games of the season, he came out of the Week 7 bye in incredible shape, thanks to Dak Prescott, who started to ball out. In 11 games since then, he scored 11 touchdowns, only failing to find the endzone twice. He’s had double-digit targets in all but two games in that span and has been Prescott’s favorite target. Not only that, but he scored twice against the Packers when they met last season. Back Lamb to score first against a Packers’ defense that’s been susceptible to the pass.

CeeDee Lamb prop: First touchdown (+550 at 888sport)

Prop bet #3: Mini Cooper

My third pick has slightly longer odds. Of all the games that are poised for an upset this week, I‘m most convinced by the Rams beating the Lions, who are 4-point favorites. I really don’t rate this Lions defense, and their secondary in particular is a huge weakness. They’ve given up the sixth-most yards per game through the air this season and with Matthew Stafford back in Detroit I think they’re going to get torched again.

The Lions have been efficient against the run, with only the Bears giving up less on the ground, which means I’m going to rule out Kyren Williams scoring first, making it a toss-up between Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and I feel Kupp is the best option.

We’ve seen over the past few seasons that Stafford and Kupp have real chemistry and that hasn’t disappeared with the arrival of Nacua. In part due to Nacua’s success, we haven’t heard much of Kupp this year, as he returned from an injury, and it’s gone under the radar that he’s scored in four of his past five games. With a spot in the Divisional Round on the line, I think we’re going to see McVay and Stafford focus on getting the ball in the hands of somebody they can trust, which is why Cooper Kupp odds offer big value at +1,000 to score first against the Lions.

Cooper Kupp prop: First touchdown (+1,000 at 888sport)

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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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