The NFL Draft odds might suddenly be a little more interesting to Cleveland Browns fans.
Cleveland endured a miserable Sunday against Jacksonville, while several other teams around the NFL gave their fanbases an early excuse to start looking ahead to the 2027 NFL Draft.
The timing isn't bad, either. Arch Manning just strengthened his case as the favorite to go No. 1 overall with Texas' comeback win over Ohio State, while Miami quarterback Darian Mensah has become one of the fastest risers in the market.
So, yes, it's only Week 1. But some Sundays make it easier than others to start scouting.
Latest 2027 NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 pick
| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Arch Manning (QB) |
26% |
 CJ Carr (QB) |
19% |
 Darian Mensah (QB) |
18% |
 Jeremiah Smith (WR) |
13% |
 Dante Moore (QB) |
9% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Manning remains the favorite, but this is no longer a one-man market. Carr sits at 19%, while Mensah has climbed to 18% after two huge performances to open his first season at Miami.
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Arch Manning strengthens his hold on NFL Draft odds
Arch Manning didn't dominate Ohio State from start to finish Saturday. In fact, Texas spent most of the night getting pushed around.
But trailing 23-3 entering the fourth quarter, Manning helped lead the Longhorns all the way back for a 24-23 win over the No. 1 team in the country. He finished with 196 passing yards and completed 11 of his final 15 attempts as Texas scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns.
That's the type of performance that matters more to me than another 400-yard afternoon against an overmatched opponent. Manning didn't have his best stuff, the game looked dead, and he still found a way to win it.
That doesn't guarantee he'll go No. 1 next April, but I'm still buying him as the player to beat in this market.
Darian Mensah is flying up the board, but I'm not buying yet
It's hard to make a statistical case against Darian Mensah right now.
He went 27-for-30 for 401 yards and five touchdowns against Stanford, then followed it up by completing 14 of 15 passes for 252 yards and three more scores against Florida A&M. Through two games, that's 41 completions on 45 attempts for 653 yards, eight touchdowns, and a ridiculous 91.1% completion rate.
That's also Stanford and FAMU.
Mensah deserves the rise from 6% in our previous update to 18% now, especially after throwing for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns at Duke last season. But I'm not paying the new price based on two games where Miami had an enormous talent advantage.
He's firmly in the conversation. I just want to see it against better competition before I'm ready to put him alongside Manning.
Latest NFL worst record odds: Browns surge after ugly Week 1
Figuring out who goes No. 1 in the 2027 NFL Draft is only half the equation. Someone has to finish low enough in the standings to earn the pick.
After Sunday's ugly showing against Jacksonville, Cleveland is now sitting at 24% in Kalshi's worst-record market, trailing only Arizona and Miami at 26% apiece.
| Team | Probability |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals |
26% |
 Miami Dolphins |
26% |
 Cleveland Browns |
24% |
 Atlanta Falcons |
9% |
 Las Vegas Raiders |
7% |
 Tennessee Titans |
7% |
 New York Jets |
6% |
 Carolina Panthers |
4% |
Cleveland Browns fans may want to start scouting now
Dear Cleveland Browns fans: I'm not going to tell you how to live your lives.
But maybe clear your Saturdays and get your notepad out.
Cleveland's 34-10 loss to Jacksonville was ugly from the start, and Deshaun Watson did very little to quiet the questions surrounding the most important position on the roster. Watson threw an interception on the Browns' opening possession and later lost a fumble as Cleveland's offense struggled to get anything going.
The obvious counterargument is that Cleveland doesn't have to wait until April for another option. Shedeur Sanders opened the season as Watson's backup after losing the QB competition in training camp, while rookie Taylen Green is also on the depth chart. Dillon Gabriel remains on injured reserve with a back injury.
But that's also why the 2027 NFL Draft matters. Cleveland has several quarterbacks it can evaluate this season, but none should prevent the Browns from taking another swing if they end up with one of the first few picks.
And at 24% to finish with the NFL's worst record, that possibility doesn't look particularly crazy after Week 1.
Manning, Carr, Mensah, and Moore all give Cleveland potential options if the franchise decides it's finally time to reset the position.
The season is one game old. The scouting can start whenever you're ready.
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Colts, Falcons, Titans also worth watching
Cleveland isn't alone.
Indianapolis Colts: The Indianapolis Colts have spent years trying to find a long-term solution at quarterback, and another season near the bottom of the standings would put that conversation right back at the center of everything. If they end up with a premium pick, this quarterback class becomes awfully interesting.
Atlanta Falcons: The Atlanta Falcons are the biggest stretch here, but the long-term quarterback picture is still worth watching. If the Falcons struggle and enter the offseason without a clear answer, suddenly a deep 2027 quarterback class matters a lot more.
Tennessee Titans: The Tennessee Titans are just two years removed from drafting Cam Ward as their franchise QB, so it would be weird to see them move on so quickly. Jeremiah Smith would increase their offensive ceiling.
2027 NFL Draft prediction: Arch Manning still No. 1
I'm not moving off Manning yet, and at 26% on Kalshi, he's still the player I'd rather back at the top of this market.
Mensah has been nearly perfect statistically, Carr continues to climb, and there is plenty of time for this market to flip several times before April.
But Manning just showed me something against Ohio State that Mensah hasn't been asked to show yet. He struggled, Texas fell behind by 20 points, and he still helped engineer a comeback against the No. 1 team in the country.
For now, Manning remains my pick to go No. 1 overall.
As for who actually gets the chance to draft him?
After Sunday, Browns fans might want to keep that Kalshi worst-record market bookmarked.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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