It may shock you to know that the Miami Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.
That’s right. Those Dolphins.
Miami has won four in a row and five of its last six games to pull within striking distance of a postseason spot in the AFC. That 6-7 record sits just behind Pittsburgh, whose 7-6 mark makes them the top team in the AFC North.
I size up the opening odds and early adjustments for Monday Night Football and give my early Dolphins vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for Monday, December 15.
Dolphins vs Steelers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early MNF spread pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
In this weird MNF pairing, even the line movement is making me scratch my head.
The Miami Dolphins opened as a +3.5 underdog in Pittsburgh, but action on the Fins is sliding this vig on the underdog as high as -120, and some sportsbooks have dropped to a field goal spread. I fully expected this line to trend the other way and flirt with the Pittsburgh Steelers -4 later in the week.
Wins are wins, I guess. But Miami isn’t blowing away opponents during this stretch and have been upside down in the box score in a number of those victories, watching foes outgain them offensively but shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and red-zone whiffs.
The Steelers snapped a two-game slide with a huge win over Baltimore on the weekend, but dodged a couple of game-changing bullets, including a controversial call on a Ravens’ would-be touchdown in the dying minutes.
If you do like Pittsburgh in Week 15, wait and get this spread at -3. The Steelers are always a tough out at home, and the extended forecast for Acrisure Stadium calls for snow showers and temperatures that “feel like” 14 degrees on Monday night.
Early MNF total pick: Under 41.5
With game-time conditions about as far from South Beach as possible, we could see this total tick down the closer we get to the weekend.
This Over/Under is currently above the key number of 41 at many books, but others have already started slimming the total (which was as tall as 43.5 O/U).
The Dolphins got a scare from star RB De’Von Achane in Week 14, as he left the win over the Jets with a rib injury. However, early word is that he’ll be OK on the extended week and be in action Monday.
Achane has powered this Miami attack during this streak, with the Dolphins handing off at the highest rate in the league the past three games. That keeps gains short and the clock ticking, translating into a healthy chunk of TOP for the Fins.
The Dolphins will go run-heavy again on Monday, especially if conditions stink, to keep the heat from QB Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh brings blitz at a Top 5 rate and is among the leaders in sacks and QB hits.
The Steelers' attack has lacked explosive plays with Aaron Rodgers under center. He enters Week 15 with the second-lowest intended air yards per attempt among qualified QBs, and the offense has the sixth fewest completions of 20 yards or more — just behind the Dolphins.
Dolphins vs Steelers odds
- Dolphins vs. Steelers spread: Steelers -3.5
- Dolphins vs. Steelers moneyline: Dolphins +155, Steelers -185
- Dolphins vs. Steelers Over/Under: 41.5
How to watch Dolphins vs Steelers
- Dolphins vs. Steelers matchup
- Date: Monday, December 15, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Pittsburgh, PA
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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