Las Vegas is laying points despite turning to QB Kirk Cousins and coming off a season that earned them the No. 1 overall pick. Our early Dolphins vs. Raiders predictions explain why Miami is worth backing in their season opener on Sunday, Sept. 13.
Check out all of our NFL picks for Week 1, and don't miss kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.
Dolphins vs Raiders predictions
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Early Dolphins vs Raiders spread pick: Dolphins +3.5
It's a miracle we get another chance to fade QB Kirk Cousins, whom the Las Vegas Raiders chose as their Week 1 starter instead of the No. 1 overall pick, Fernando Mendoza. He's always had a noodle arm, but Cousins' lack of mobility should be a death knell for his NFL career.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas has a Bottom 5 wide receiver corps, at best.
Granted, the Miami Dolphins are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and people hate their head coaching hire this offseason, Jeff Hafley. But should the team that just picked first overall in the NFL draft be a 3.5-point favorite over anyone?
Meanwhile, Miami's roster has a few players I'm excited about. I'd take Dolphins first-year starting QB Malik Willis over both Cousins and Mendoza in Week 1. Miami running back De'Von Achane was PFF's second-highest graded player at his position last year.
Again, I know the Dolphins will most likely be bad this season. However, picking the Raiders, with Cousins as their quarterback, to beat any NFL team by 4+ points in the Year of our Lord 2026 seems absurd.
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Early Dolphins vs Raiders total pick: Under 40.5
Hafley was the Packers' defensive coordinator for the past two seasons, and Miami has one of the few WR corps that could be as bad as Las Vegas'. Plus, the quarterback matchup doesn't exactly scream "shootout," and I'm assuming Hafley tries to establish the run this Sunday.
My earlier statement about liking a few Dolphins players extends to their defense.
It's not a "premium position," but Miami rookie LB Jacob Rodriguez will be a Pro Bowler in this league. The Dolphins drafted CB Chris Johnson with their second first-round pick. Their other starting linebacker, Jordyn Brooks, was the 11th-highest-graded linebacker last season, per PFF.
Dolphins vs Raiders odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Dolphins vs Raiders spread: Dolphins +3.5, Raiders -3.5
- Dolphins vs Raiders moneyline: Dolphins 39%, Raiders 65%
- Dolphins vs Raiders Over/Under: 40.5
How to watch Dolphins vs Raiders
- Dolphins vs Raiders matchup
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Las Vegas, Nev.
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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