Dolphins vs Patriots Week 17 Picks and Predictions: New England Swamps Miami Offense

Miami won the first matchup between these teams in Week 1, but a lot has changed since then. With Tua out and New England's defense motivated, our NFL betting picks are fading the Dolphins' offense in this Week 17 rematch.

Last Updated: Jan 1, 2023 8:17 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Teddy Bridgewater Miami Dolphins NFL
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The Miami Dolphins can potentially clinch a playoff berth with a win over the New England Patriots in Foxborough on Sunday, but the road team will face an uphill battle with star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sidelined.

The third-year QB entered concussion protocol following the Fins' 26-20 loss to Green Bay, in which Tagovailoa threw a trio of interceptions. With the signal caller officially ruled out, backup Teddy Bridgewater will start against a Pats team on the playoff bubble.

Can Miami overcome its injury woes to snap a four-game losing streak and secure a spot in the postseason? Below we offer our best free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Dolphins vs. Patriots in Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season.

Dolphins vs Patriots best odds

Dolphins vs Patriots picks and predictions

A lot has changed since Miami's Week 1 win over the Patriots. Chase Edmonds was a member of the Dolphins but was traded along with draft picks to the Denver Broncos in exchange for linebacker Bradley Chubb and a 2025 fifth-round pick.

Running back Jeff Wilson Jr. has also since joined Miami via trade, reuniting him with McDaniel — his former offensive coordinator in San Francisco — and former 49ers' teammate Raheem Mostert. These two will need to step up with Tua sidelined, but the run game has not been effective lately and will get a test from New England’s ninth-ranked rushing defense.

The Pats pass defense, on the other hand, dropped to 14th in average passing yards allowed after it surrendered 375 yards to Bengals' QB Joe Burrow in a 22-18 loss last week. Nonetheless, with Bridgewater as the starter, points will be tougher to rack up for Miami.

In the two games Bridgewater played a majority of snaps, the Dolphins totaled 15 points in a loss to Cincinnati, in which Tua suffered a concussion in the first half that sidelined him the next two games. When Bridgewater got the start against Minnesota two weeks later, the Dolphins totaled 16 points in a 24-16 loss, in which Bridgewater recorded two touchdown passes and two interceptions.

Considering Miami’s recent offensive struggles even with Tua in the lineup, the team is going to have a difficult day against a hungry Pats defense looking to bounce back after two painfully close losses and out for vengeance against a division foe standing in the way of its playoff hopes.

In Week 1, New England’s stop unit surrendered just one touchdown, on a 42-yard pass to Jaylen Waddle, but otherwise held Miami to a pair of field goals. If the Pats' offense had played a cleaner game, the outcome would likely have been much different.

If New England can take better care of the ball this time around, it should be able to control the clock and keep Miami’s offense off the field. Look for the Pats' defense to step up at home and keep this a low-scoring battle against a banged-up Dolphins squad in danger of missing the postseason altogether.

My best bet: Dolphins team total Under 19.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

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Dolphins vs Patriots spread analysis

The line for this AFC East matchup opened between one point and 2.5 points and has settled between two and 2.5 points in favor of New England by the end of the week.

Neither of these teams has fared well against the spread recently. The Dolphins are 1-3 ATS in their last four, while New England has covered just once — in a road win against Arizona — in its last five games.

Head to head, it’s a different story. Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 against the Pats, including 3-0 in its last three, and the team is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. AFC East teams.

The Patriots are a concerning 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. division opponents and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. However, when listed as the favorite, New England has the best record in the NFL ATS, at 5-1-1. Miami is an even 3-3 when playing as the underdog.

The Patriots are also riding a four-game losing streak to Miami — dating back to 2020 — the year longtime quarterback Tom Brady moved to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In the midst of that four-game streak, the Pats have lost by an average margin of 8.25 points, but all four of those games featured Tagovailoa as the starter.

Dolphins vs Patriots Over/Under analysis

The total for this game opened at 43.5 at a majority of sportsbooks and has since moved to 41 points at most books.

The Over has hit in five of the Dolphins’ last six road games overall, but the Under is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games following a straight up loss.

The total has also gone Under in six of New England’s last eight games, with the Over hitting in losses to Las Vegas and Minnesota, who both own two of the worst pass defenses in the league.

The Dolphins rank just below the Raiders in passing yards allowed (244.7), but Miami’s run defense has been solid — permitting 109.1 yards per outing — good for 10th best in the NFL.

In Miami’s away games this season, the Over is 6-2, but it’s 2-5 in New England’s games in Foxborough. The Under is also 7-3 in the last 10 matchups between these teams, and it’s 2-1 in the last three.

In the last four head-to-head meetings, the points total has surpassed 41 points just once — in a 33-24 win by Miami in Week 18 of the 2021 season. The other three most recent matchups resulted in points totals of 27, 33, and 34, with New England averaging 14.75 points in that span.

Dolphins vs Patriots betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Patriots.

Dolphins vs Patriots game info

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Date: Sunday, January 1, 2023
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Patriots +1, 44

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