The Atlanta Falcons will look to get back to their winning ways at home when they host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.
Miami looked completely uncompetitive this past weekend, and I’m picking Atlanta to cover in my Dolphins vs. Falcons predictions.
Let’s break down how bettors should approach this game early in the week in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 26.
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Dolphins vs Falcons predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Dolphins vs Falcons spread pick: Falcons -7.5
While the Atlanta Falcons weren’t able to get anything consistent started on offense against the 49ers on Sunday night, that shouldn’t lead us to forget what they’ve accomplished at home in recent weeks.
In Atlanta’s last two games in its building, it has scored a 34-27 win over the Commanders followed by a 24-14 win against the Bills — two quality wins, with the Falcons covering in both.
It’s hard to see the Miami Dolphins heading into Atlanta and doing well. In a season where Miami has already been struggling to put away games, it barely showed up in a 31-6 loss to the Browns on Sunday.
The Dolphins have the distinction of being one of the worst teams in the NFL both offensively and defensively. Outside of De'Von Achane, who has moved the ball well on the ground, nobody has distinguished themselves as a consistent threat on offense, while Miami is giving up 6.2 yards per play defensively.
The Falcons have been up and down, but mostly up at home, and they’ve been able to score points against weaker defensive teams. I don’t expect this game to be close.
Early Dolphins vs Falcons total pick: Under 45.5
When the Falcons have had success this season, it's been based on two clear strengths. First of all, they've been outstanding against the passing game, ranking second in the NFL in both completion percentage against (59%) and opposing QB rating (72.8).
And while they haven’t been nearly as successful at stopping the run, clamping down on opposing passers has been enough to limit the opposition to just 265.2 yards per game — a league low — and an average of 20.0 ppg.
Offensively, Atlanta’s success has come on the ground. Behind Bijan Robinson, the Falcons are averaging a league-leading 136.3 rushing yards per game. That should play well against the Dolphins, who are allowing a league worse 159.3 yards per game on the ground while giving up 5.2 yards per carry.
The key takeaway for bettors is that both teams should find more success on the ground than through the air. And for two teams that already have problems putting up a lot of points, that should shorten the game, keep the clock moving, and keep the score down.
Dolphins vs Falcons odds
- Dolphins vs. Falcons spread: Falcons -7.5
- Dolphins vs. Falcons moneyline: Dolphins +300, Falcons -350
- Dolphins vs. Falcons Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Dolphins vs Falcons
- Dolphins vs. Falcons matchup
- Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Atlanta, GA
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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