In the latest edition of Fun With Covers Math: We're now down to eight teams remaining in the quest for Super Bowl glory.
That means 16 different winning combinations for this weekend's games – each representing a different potential four-game moneyline parlay. We ranked those 16 combos according to overall value, and asked each of our NFL analysts to share their favorite parlays for the NFL Divisional Round.
NFL Divisional Round Four-Team Parlays
(Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
| Parlay | Teams | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| The Chalk Party |     |
+495 |
| The Chalk Soiree |  |
+495 |
| 3 Faves + a Medium Upset |  |
+728 |
| East Coast, Least Coast | |
+728 |
| Home Cookin' |  |
+1004 |
| The Wet, Frigid Winter | |
+1004 |
| The Cold Open | |
+1452 |
| The Port City Parlay | |
+1452 |
| Three Faves + a Big Upset |  |
+1743 |
| The Fantastic Four | |
+1743 |
| Southern Hospitality | |
+2470 |
| From Border to Bay | |
+2470 |
| The Brandon Lloyd | |
+3252 |
| Decades of Dominance | |
+3252 |
| The Big One (Broncos) | |
+4839 |
| The Big One (Bills) | |
+4839 |
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"The Chalk Party"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +495
Bills moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
Patriots moneyline
Rams moneyline
This is for anyone looking for the best statistical chance at a parlay win. After all, Ws are Ws. And don't you dare let your group chat buddies make you feel bad about this one.
"The Chalk Soiree"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +495
Broncos moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
Patriots moneyline
Rams moneyline
A slightly fancier get-together than "The Chalk Party", by virtue of Denver's status (according to AI) as a more fashion-focused city than Buffalo, which is described by ChatGPT as "gritty and regional". Ouch.
"3 Faves and a Medium Upset"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +728
Bills moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
Texans moneyline
Rams moneyline
There's no shame in feeling a little less spicy – and while the ramp-down from the San Francisco ML to a Houston moneyline play trims the payout significantly, you're still making out nicely while reducing your risk noticeably.
"East Coast? Try Least Coast"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +728
⭐ Endorsed by: Josh Inglis, Rohit Ponnaya, Todd Fuhrman
Broncos moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
Texans moneyline
Rams moneyline
A number of these four-team combinations leave the East Coast out altogether (New England and Buffalo are the only remaining teams adhering to EST), and this isn't even the most Pacific we can get (since we could have three West Coast teams in the conference finals). But it's still quite unkind to east-based U.S. fans.
"Home Cookin'"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +1014
⭐ Endorsed by: Jason Logan
Broncos moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
Patriots moneyline
Bears moneyline
Look. Some of you like betting the home teams. We get it! This parlay is for you. But home-field advantage ain't what it used to be.
"The Wet, Frigid Winter"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +1014
Bills moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
Patriots moneyline
Bears moneyline
If you live in or have visited any of these cities, you know that Mother Nature has thumbed her nose at them from a weather perspective. This one's for those of you whose belief in good weather karma playing out in NFL playoff form.
"The Cold Open"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +1452
⭐ Endorsed by: Neil Parker, Joe Osborne
Broncos moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
Texans moneyline
Bears moneyline
Actual Betting Content Alert: The four teams that make up this parlay all ranked inside the top 7 in fewest first-quarter points allowed during the regular season. If they can throw their opponents off rhythm early this weekend, you might have yourself a nice parlay play.
"The Port City Parlay"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +1452
⭐ Endorsed by: Jake Butt
Bills moneyline
Seahawks moneyline
Texans moneyline
Bears moneyline
This parlay is for those of you looking to ship a big win. Your bankroll is precious cargo, after all, and leaning into this theme could help manifest a victory. You're docking yourself compared with larger payouts on this list, but you could be in for smoother sailing as a result. (I am so, so sorry.)
"3 Faves and a Big Upset"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +1743
Bills moneyline
49ers moneyline
Texans moneyline
Rams moneyline
Feels a bit like cheating, no? Hit on three of the four favorites, hope that the Niners are sufficiently motivated (and can field enough healthy players) against Seattle, and boom! A healthy parlay payout. Responsible risk. I like it.
"The Fantastic Four"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +1743
Broncos moneyline
49ers moneyline
Patriots moneyline
Rams moneyline
Winning one Super Bowl is difficult enough. But each of these franchises has multiple titles to their credit – and that kind of championship pedigree is difficult to ignore. Winners produce winners, am I right?
"Southern Hospitality"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +2470
Broncos moneyline
49ers moneyline
Texans moneyline
Rams moneyline
Cadillac grills. Cadillac mills. Check out the oil my Cadillac spills. Let Ludacris be the north star for this Divisional Round parlay built around teams located in the southern regions of the United States.
"From Border to Bay"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +2470
⭐ Endorsed by: Jon Metler, John Middlekauff
Bills moneyline
49ers moneyline
Texans moneyline
Rams moneyline
Anyone who watched Sesame Street is familiar with the "one of these things just doesn't belong here" trope. In this case, the "thing" is Buffalo, a veritable minnow population-wise compared to metropolitan giants San Francisco, Houston and Los Angeles. Little guys are great for parlays!
"The Brandon Lloyd"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +3252
Broncos moneyline
49ers moneyline
Patriots moneyline
Bears moneyline
Only one player in NFL history has caught a pass for the Broncos, 49ers, Patriots, and Bears. I'll give you one guess.
"Decades of Dominance"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +3252
Bills moneyline
49ers moneyline
Patriots moneyline
Bears moneyline
Did You Know? 1) The Bears won the fifth-most games in the 1980s (along with their only Super Bowl title); 2) The 49ers and Bills ranked 1-2 in victories in the 1990s; 3) The Patriots won more games in the 2010s than any other NFL franchise. Decades! Of! Dominance!
"The Big One (Broncos Edition)"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +4839
Broncos moneyline
49ers moneyline
Patriots moneyline
Bears moneyline
Let's get crazy! This is the max ML payout, so if you go this route, know that you're quite likely going to be donating your proceeds to whatever your sportsbook of choice does with all of those squashed parlay dollars.
"The Big One (Bills Edition)"
/ / /
Approximate Odds: +4839
Bills moneyline
49ers moneyline
Texans moneyline
Bears moneyline
Here's the max ML payout with the Bills in place of the Broncos; I'm not sure if it would be more or less devastating to potentially lose this parlay with a Bills defeat or a Broncos setback, but it sure feels like the Buffalo L would hit harder.
