The 2025 NFL season hasn't even begun, but there's already a runaway favorite for the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Giants outside linebacker Abdul Carter is atop the DROY odds at +175, with Jalon Walker next on the board at +950.
Pass rushers have owned this award in recent years, with sack artists taking home five of the last six trophies. That said, my NFL picks are backing another first-round edge rusher at a much better price.
I'm also sprinkling a wager on a long shot linebacker who is expected to start from Day 1.
NFL DROY pick: Mykel Williams (+1100 at FanDuel)
There's plenty of hype surrounding No. 3 pick Abdul Carter, but don't forget Mykel Williams was also considered a Top 5 prospect for much of the year.
He ended up slipping to the 11th pick due to concerns about his modest production and middling 40-yard dash.
That said, it isn't easy for defensive linemen to post high numbers at Georgia due to Kirby Smart's tendency to rotate players at a high rate. Likewise, while his 4.76 forty-yard dash doesn't stand out, his elite agility, bend, and explosiveness are more important for his position.
Williams is projected to start for San Francisco and will get to play across from All-Pro Nick Bosa, who will draw double-teams and be the focus of blocking plans.
That should make things easier for Williams, who will also benefit from the return of Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator.
Williams is also in a better situation to put up big numbers when compared to Carter. The 49ers have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, while the Giants have the toughest. That means San Fran will be playing with positive game scripts, forcing opponents to drop back more.
In addition, the Giants also have Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux at outside linebacker, so Carter will be in a rotation while Williams should take the majority of snaps.
NFL DROY long shot: Demetrius Knight II (+8000 at bet365)
The Bengals drafted Knight in the second round and expect him to start from Week 1 at linebacker alongside veteran Logan Wilson. He's a big, twitched-up athlete with 4.58 speed, and he was second on South Carolina with 82 tackles last year while adding three fumbles forced, a pair of sacks, and a pick.
Linebackers can make an instant impact, especially when it comes to racking up tackles in the run game. Whether or not Knight becomes a contender for DROY comes down to how reliable he can be in pass coverage and the splash plays he makes.
Based on early reviews, he's trending in the right direction in those areas, with teammates and coaches praising his leadership qualities and the coachability of the 25-year-old.
The Bengals are expected to struggle defensively again, but that means their stop unit will be on the field longer, leading to inflated stats for defenders like Knight.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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