The Houston Texans are looking to CJ Stroud to have a bounce-back performance against the shaky defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as part of the NFL’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.
We’ll break down the best options for betting on CJ Stroud odds, as part of our Buccaneers vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks, with the quarterback facing one of the worst pass defenses from a season ago on Monday, September 15.
CJ Stroud prop pick
CJ Stroud best bet: Over 10.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
It could be a very long night for Stroud, as injuries are already putting a serious strain on the Houston Texans offense. He’s without Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios at wide receiver, while running back Joe Mixon remains out for the foreseeable future.
Now, he'll also be without Jake Andrews and Cade Stover. Stroud’s center will miss the game with an ankle injury, while the tight end has been placed on IR.
Stroud was sacked three times last week by the Rams, as he was held to just 188 yards passing. Jared Verse and Byron Young both ended in PFF’s Top 10 pass rush grades for the week, with a combined nine pressures.
Haason Reddick was tied for the Week 1 lead with eight pressures and a pass rush win rate of 25%. He will lead a Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rush that won’t have to deal with Joe Mixon’s rushing ability and should pin its ears back.
That makes Stroud’s rushing total of 10.5 yards a very enticing play here. Nick Chubb won't present much of a rushing threat, and Stroud will likely be in plenty of situations where he’s behind the chains.
Add in the leaky line and Tampa Bay’s pressure, and he’s going to need to make plays with his legs. Stroud ran for 32 yards on five carries last week and will get to double-digit yardage here as well.
CJ Stroud same-game parlay
CJ Stroud Over 10.5 rushing yards
Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 receptions
Sterling Shepard Over 19.5 receiving yards
Dalton Schultz was targeted five times against the Rams, and he caught three passes for 28 yards. But he was also splitting time and targets at the position with Stover.
The injury to Stover puts Schultz in line to pick up additional targets. Stover caught all four of his targets last week for 22 yards, and Schultz should benefit with Kirk also still sidelined.
The Buccaneers had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL a season ago, and they allowed seven completions to Kyle Pitts in Week 1. Four catches is a very favorable floor for Schultz.
Baker Mayfield was forced to spread the ball around last week, with AJ Terrell covering Mike Edwards. Both Emeka Egbuka and Sterling Shepard benefited, with each getting six targets compared to eight for Mike Evans.
Egbuka had a bit of a breakout performance, with four catches for 67 yards and a pair of scores. Shepard only caught three of his targets for 39 yards, but I view him as a sneaky play here.
Shepard ran 27 routes last week and was on the field 64% of Tampa Bay’s snaps. With Chris Godwin still sidelined and Egbuka drawing extra attention, he'll get opportunities. And with an average depth of target of 14 yards last week, getting to 20 yards won’t be difficult.
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