Chiefs vs Chargers SNF Prop Bets: Mahomes Lights Up SoFi

We’re in for a treat Sunday night when AFC West rivals Kansas City Chiefs meet the Los Angeles Chargers.

This contest has the highest total on the board, and the prop markets are abuzz with many highly-skilled offensive players featured in this contest. Will Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes make an impact, or could Chargers running back Austin Ekeler steal the show?

Don’t miss our NFL prop picks for the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's full Sunday Night Football betting picks and predictions.

Chiefs vs Chargers props

• Mahomes Over 2.5 TD passes (+130)
• Toney Over 0.5 TD receptions (+155)
• Ekeler Over 89.5 rush+receiving yards (-115)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Chiefs vs Chargers SNF props

Mahomes through the air

This contest has the highest total on the board, and if these teams live up to the oddsmakers' potential, Patrick Mahomes should be the one figuring in on most of the scoring.

Mahomes was supposed to regress with the departure of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, but the Chiefs QB has been brilliant this season, throwing for a league-best 2,936 yards and the most touchdown passes. He’s thrown three or more TD passes in five of the Chiefs' nine games and slung the ball for 331 yards with scoring strikes last week against Jacksonville.

The Chiefs signal-caller threw for 232 yards and a pair of scoring strikes in their Week 2 home victory over the Chargers, but that was a Chiefs offense figuring life without Hill. Since then, Mahomes has thrown three or more TD passes in four of the past seven and slung it for 331 yards and four scoring strikes in a Week 10 victory over Jacksonville.

I expect Mahomes to carve up an average Chargers' secondary, allowing a 13th-best 209 passing yards per game. He’ll be without JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, but the Chiefs' superstar still has enough weapons to move the ball down the field and engineer the best red zone offense to keep producing.

Patrick Mahomes Prop: Over 2.5 TD passes (+130)

New kid on the block

Kadarious Toney wasn’t getting enough targets with the New York Giants, but since being acquired in a Week 8 trade, he has hauled in six of his seven targets for 69 yards and a TD. The Giants selected Toney in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and the second-year WR hauled in 39 passes for 428 yards without a TD.

The Giants don’t have the passing game the Chiefs have, and the speedster from Florida has already seen more action in two weeks than in his entire career. Toney was active on 28 snap counts in Week 10 and hauled in five of six passes, including his first career TD reception.

Kadarius Toney with perhaps the easiest TD of his life

pic.twitter.com/s7NWA6uOG6

— Matt Verderame (@MattVerderame) November 13, 2022

With top wideouts Smith-Schuster and Hardman on the shelf, I expect Mahomes to look for Toney often against a Los Angeles Chargers defense allowing 161 yards per game to the WR position. 

As I mentioned, the Chargers passing defense is league-average at best. With the lack of dependable receiving options for Kansas City, Toney is a good bet to catch a TD pass in a high-scoring Sunday night affair.

Kadarius Toney Prop: Over 0.5 TD receptions (+155)

Ekeler with a Big Day

The Chargers offense has been without several skilled offensive players, and Ekeler has been tasked with carrying most of the offense. With the status of WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams up in the air, we can expect the most dependable offensive player the Chargers possess to once again pick up the slack on Sunday.

Ekeler is coming off his lowest snap count of the season (40), but he is usually on the field for most of the offensive plays. He’s rushed for 451 yards with six TDs and racked up an additional 420 receiving yards. This is a high total, and with the Chargers' injury situation being what it is, I expect Los Angeles to deploy Ekeler and him to have some success against the Chiefs. 

The team's second-leading receiver should deliver enough yardage on the ground and through the air to exceed the 89.5 rushing and receiving total.

Austin Ekeler Prop: Over 89.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)

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