The Kansas City Chiefs look to keep their playoff hopes alive following their bye week as they clash with the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon.
Patrick Mahomes faces a defense with one of the elite pass-rushing units in the league, and that presents some intriguing markets for us to capitalize on.
Here are my free Chiefs vs. Broncos player props and NFL picks for November 16.
Make sure to also check out our full Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions before kickoff!
Chiefs vs Broncos props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Brashard Smith |
Over 1.5 catches | +106 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
Over 4.5 rushing attempts | -114 |
 RJ Harvey |
Anytime touchdown | +145 |
Prop bet #1: Brashard Smith Over 1.5 catches
Andy Reid knows that he can’t allow the Denver Broncos to pin their ears back and come after his quarterback. It’s especially vital given the issues his offensive line is dealing with of late.
That’s where the screen game will come into play. While running back Brashard Smith has not caught a pass in either of the last two games, the Kansas City Chiefs know they won’t find much success on the ground against this Denver defense.
The injury to Isiah Pacheco opens up more catches in the backfield, and the Clyde Edwards-Helaire experiment last week was disastrous.
Smith hasn’t seen as much action the past few games, but designed screen plays are a terrific opportunity to utilize his electrifying speed. Getting the backs involved in the passing game will be key, and Smith is averaging 8.7 yards a catch this season.
This game presents a great opportunity for him to be utilized again, and getting him at FanDuel at +106 is terrific value — especially with this prop sitting as low as -120 elsewhere.
Prop bet #2: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 rushing attempts
While the rushing yardage mark of 24.5 yards for Patrick Mahomes is tempting, the bigger value is backing the Chiefs quarterback to carry the ball at least five times.
The Broncos run man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Two of the teams ahead of them are the Lions and the Giants.
Why is that important? Because Mahomes ran the ball five times against the Giants and a season-high 10 times against the Lions.
With Denver’s pass rush getting after him, there will be plenty of chances — and reasons — for him to tuck and run. The Lions have a similarly-ranked pass rush to that of the Broncos, and Mahomes scrambled five times in that game.
Three of the runs against both the Lions and Giants also came from kneel-downs, which is another reason why I love this prop. The Chiefs come into the game favored by 3.5 points, and the Broncos are struggling with putting together consistent drives.
There’s a strong chance Mahomes will be kneeling a few times at the end of the game, which means we’ve got value on his rushing total.
Prop bet #3: RJ Harvey anytime touchdown
With J.K. Dobbins officially out for the season, it’s now RJ Harvey’s backfield in Denver.
The Chiefs are allowing 4.3 yards a carry this season, ranking 17th in the NFL. They also sit 25th in EPA and 22nd in success rate against the run.
Harvey owns just two rushing touchdowns this season, but he also has had just six carries inside the 20-yard line. He stands to pick up the workload left behind by Dobbins, who has compiled 20 rushing attempts inside the red zone.
Additionally, Harvey has been quite active in the passing game. He is fifth in targets and fourth in catches, and has caught a touchdown pass in three of his last four games. The rookie's four receiving scores on the season are the most of any back in the NFL.
With his increased snap count and increased probability of touching the ball near the goal line, Harvey should be priced closer to +120. I’m not hesitating to grab him at this number.
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