Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations will meet up on Sunday afternoon as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Buffalo Bills in an AFC Championship Game rematch.
There’s a ton of offensive talent on the field for this game, and I’m backing James Cook and Travis Kelce to hit their targets in my Chiefs vs. Bills predictions.
Here are the top NFL player props for bettors to consider in this high-profile matchup, featured in my free NFL picks for Sunday, November 2.
Chiefs vs Bills props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 James Cook |
Over 75.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Travis Kelce |
Over 4.5 receptions | +106 |
| Khalil Shakir |
Anytime touchdown | +230 |
Prop bet #1: James Cook Over 75.5 rushing yards
The focus of the Buffalo Bills' offense is always Josh Allen, but James Cook is putting together a career year on the ground. Cook is averaging over 100 yards per game rushing while averaging a career-best 6.0 yards per carry, and has scored seven times in his first seven games.
Those numbers were boosted by a monster game against the Carolina Panthers last week, in which Cook ran the ball 19 times for 216 yards and two touchdowns. But that marked the fifth time in six games that the former Georgia Bulldog ran for at least 80 yards, surpassing the 100-yard barrier in four of those contests.
The Bills have been as good as anyone on the ground this year, while the Kansas City Chiefs have had some struggles stopping the run, allowing 4.4 yards per play in the rushing game. That’s enough to have me all over this total, since Cook has regularly been surpassing it this season. Even a typical game from the Buffalo running back will take us to the Over tonight.
Prop bet #2: Travis Kelce Over 4.5 receptions
After Travis Kelce’s production dipped in the last two seasons, it was only natural to wonder if the superstar tight end’s career was coming to a close. That might still be the case, but Kelce has shown enough this year to prove he’s still a dependable option, even if his days of going for 10+ scores and over 100 catches a year are over.
If anything, Kelce’s production has been improving as the season has worn on. As always, Patrick Mahomes sees him as a dependable option, and Kelce has caught at least five balls in four of his past five games. Outside of a blowout win against the Las Vegas Raiders two weeks ago, he’s still getting his targets and converting at a very high rate, catching 77% of the balls thrown his way.
Buffalo has done a good job of containing opposing passing attacks, so I’m not interested in Kelce’s yardage totals or picking him to get a touchdown in this game. But it’s likely that Mahomes will be looking for shorter, safer options in a big game like this, and that has me backing the Over on Kelce’s receptions at a good price.
Prop bet #3: Khalil Shakir anytime touchdown
While Allen has several options he likes to go to in the passing game, Khalil Shakir has emerged as the No. 1 target for Buffalo. The fourth-year receiver out of Boise State leads the Bills in receptions and yardage, and is tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns with three.
Each of Shakir’s three touchdowns has come in the last five weeks. During that time, he’s averaging 4.8 receptions per game. While Shakir has shown he can be an occasional downfield threat, catching two passes for 40+ yards during that span, he’s mostly used on shorter routes, with a depth of target well under five yards.
While the Chiefs have only allowed 177.8 yards per game in the air, some of that has to do with how little teams are throwing against them. Once opponents do try to throw, they’ve had some success, at least in terms of completing short balls underneath, putting up a 69.5% completion percentage against Kansas City.
That should lead to more usage for Shakir, making him a good buy to score a touchdown at these odds.
Bet on the NFL at FanDuel!
Make your NFL bets at FanDuel, America's No. 1 sportsbook! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you could win $300 in bonus bets if your wager is a winner!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
