The Atlanta Falcons are fresh off their Week 12 bye and hosting the Los Angeles Chargers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, December 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET with the game airing on CBS.
Los Angeles will run out a new-look backfield against a vulnerable Atlanta rush defense, and our top same-game parlay NFL picks and Chargers vs. Falcons predictions are calling for LA quarterback Justin Herbert and running back Gus Edwards to lead the way offensively in Week 13.
Chargers vs Falcons same-game parlay for Week 13
Justin Herbert Over 20.5 pass completions
Gus Edwards Over 46.5 rushing yards
Cameron Dicker Over 1.5 field goals made
- Justin Herbert Over 20.5 pass completions
- Gus Edwards OVer 46.5 rushing yards
- Cameron Dicker Over 1.5 field goals made
The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 55 or more rushing yards to an opposing running back in 10 of 11 games this season, and they rank 28th in run-stop win rate while allowing the third-highest rush success rate.
Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards is set to see double-digit carries with backfield mate J.K. Dobbins (knee) out of action, and Edwards should be fresh after handling just 25 carries over the past three weeks.
The first-year Bolt rusher also has a splash of statistical correction ahead of his career-low yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, breakaway percentage, and PFF elusiveness rating. Edwards isn’t going to fully turn back the explosiveness clock to his early days in the league, but the volume will be there to clear this 46.5 rushing yard threshold against the susceptible Falcons rush defense.
The Falcons lean on zone coverage 79.3% of the time (third most) and generate quarterback pressure the third least (17.6%). As a result, I’m anticipating Atlanta to take away the deep ball which will open up plenty of looks underneath for Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert. Additionally, Herbert will have plenty of time to go through his progressions and pick apart the Falcons with short and intermediate throws.
Of course, Herbert also sports an NFL-best 92.3 PFF passing grade when throwing from a clean pocket.
With a healthy game total of 48.0, I’m expecting this to play out as a high-scoring affair, and Los Angeles kicker Cameron Dicker has hit 17 of 18 field goals through seven games since the Los Angeles bye in Week 5. He’s also hit two or more in six of those seven games, including in each of the past three.
The Falcons have allowed 25 field goals through 11 games, too, and playing inside the dome with perfect kicking conditions is another plus for Dicker going Over the number.
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