Chargers vs Chiefs Predictions - Early Picks & Odds for Week 15

The Los Angeles Chargers head to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday to face the Kansas City Chiefs in a pivotal Week 15 clash.

K.C. is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014 while the Bolts are 9-4 after upsetting the Eagles on Monday night. 

My early Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions expect a low-scoring tilt between these AFC West rivals, which has me taking the points with the visitors. 

Here are my best NFL picks for December 14.

Chargers vs Chiefs predictions

Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.

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Early Chargers vs Chiefs spread pick: Chargers +4.5

-108 at FanDuel

These teams clashed way back in Week 1, with the Los Angeles Chargers winning 27-21 in Brazil. These two tend to play in competitive games, with eight of the last nine meetings coming down to the final drive. 

The Chargers are 5-3 in their last eight games and they are fresh off an overtime win against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Now, on a short week, they travel to Arrowhead Stadium for a contest against the desperate Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 6-7 after losing at home to the Texans on Sunday. Superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes had the worst game of his career, completing just 14 of 33 passes for 160 yards with three picks.

Mahomes should play better, but the Bolts are fourth in the league in defensive dropback EPA and will still slow him down. Meanwhile, Kansas City's ineffective ground game won't be able to take advantage of a vulnerable L.A. run defense. 

The Chiefs have gone 0-5 against the spread in their last five games and lost four of those contests as favorites. While they've faced a tougher schedule than the Bolts, they shouldn't be laying this many points against a likely playoff-bound division rival.  

Books seem convinced the Chiefs will turn things around, and a wounded animal is always the most dangerous. That said, the Chargers have simply looked like the better team and will at least keep things close. 

Early Chargers vs Chiefs total pick: Under 42.5

-120 at FanDuel

As of Tuesday afternoon, the forecast is projecting temperatures in the 20 to 24 degree range at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Those freezing temps could hinder the downfield passing of both teams.

The Chiefs' offense tends to move the chains using methodical drives built on shorter chunk plays. Meanwhile, the Chargers play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league and have been running the ball a lot more lately, ranking third in rushing rate (53%) over the last three weeks. 

In addition, both sides are banged up at offensive tackle. The Bolts lost LT Rashawn Slater to a season-ending injury before the season started, with rising star Joe Alt joining him on the IR last month.

K.C. has placed LT Josh Simmons and his backup Wanya Morris on the IR, while RT Jawaan Taylor missed Week 14 due to a triceps injury. If Taylor can't play this week, the Chiefs could be forced to start undrafted free agent Esa Pole and career backup Jaylon Moore at OT.

Both teams also have strong defenses. The Chiefs are seventh in the NFL in points per game allowed (19.4), with that number shrinking to 14.9 ppg at home. The Chargers limit foes to 20.8 ppg while ranking fifth in defensive success rate and EPA. 

The Under is 7-1 in Kansas City's last eight games, and I like it to cash again on Sunday. 

Chargers vs Chiefs odds

• Chargers vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -4.5
• Chargers vs. Chiefs moneyline: Chargers +180, Chiefs -215
• Chargers vs. Chiefs Over/Under: 42.5

How to watch Chargers vs Chiefs

• Chargers vs. Chiefs matchup
• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
• City: Kansas City, MO
  
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• TV: CBS

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